What signals are released by the recovery of the automobile consumer market？
[Economic Interface]
In May, China’s automobile production and sales situation continued to improve, with a month-on-month increase, and the year-on-year growth rate was significantly higher than last month — —
What signals are released by the recovery of the automobile consumer market?
Guangming Daily reporter Liu Kun
"I really want to own a car of my own during the epidemic." "Beijing’s lottery car purchase policy will give priority to ‘ Car-free families ’ , the opportunity is coming "… … Recently, automobile consumption has become a topic that people often talk about after a meal, and some people even just bought a car they have long admired.
According to the statistics of China Automobile Industry Association, in May 2020, China’s automobile production and sales situation continued to improve, with an increase from the previous month, and the year-on-year growth rate was significantly higher than that of last month. What signals have these positive changes released?
"This shows that the effects of policies introduced by the central and local governments to stabilize and expand automobile consumption have gradually emerged, automobile enterprises have accelerated their resumption of work and production, residents’ consumer confidence has been enhanced, and automobile consumption demand has been effectively released and replenished." Gao Feng, spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce, said that China’s automobile market has great development space and potential, and the demand for automobile consumption is still strong. With the full recovery of domestic production and living order, various policies to help enterprises get further results, and China’s automobile consumption market will still maintain a steady recovery trend.
1. The growth rate of passenger car production and sales has changed from negative to positive, and the confidence of consumers has increased.
[Hot spot]
From June 1st, Beijing publicly solicited opinions on the optimization scheme of passenger car regulation policy. In the optimization scheme, on the basis of participating in the allocation of ordinary indicators and new energy indicators on a personal basis, the allocation of indicators based on "car-free families" and ranking of points is added; Give priority to "car-free families" from two aspects: setting points rules and quota ratio.
"Since the COVID-19 outbreak, China’s automobile industry has been greatly impacted and faced unprecedented challenges." Ye Shengji, chief engineer and deputy secretary-general of China Automobile Industry Association, believes that although the current situation is grim, overall, the difficulties are temporary. With the gradual recovery of China’s economy and the orderly promotion of "six guarantees" and "six guarantees", the automobile industry has gradually returned to normal, and the production and sales situation has developed in a good direction.
An ocean-going ro-ro ship recently loaded domestic cars at Lianyungang berth and exported them to Chile. Photo by Wang Chun/Bright Picture
In May this year, China’s automobile production and sales were 2.187 million and 2.194 million respectively, up 4% and 5.9% from the previous month, up 18.2% and 14.5% from the same period last year, with the growth rates increasing by 15.9 and 10.1 percentage points respectively over the previous month. Among them, the production and sales of passenger cars were 1.66 million and 1.674 million respectively, up 4.5% and 8.9% from the previous month, up 11.2% and 7.0% from the same period last year, and the growth rate has turned from negative to positive.
In this regard, Ye Shengji analyzed that the reason for the market recovery is that the domestic epidemic situation has been effectively controlled and the automobile industry has basically resumed work and production. Under the promotion of the "combination boxing" of policies such as stimulating domestic demand and promoting consumption, consumers’ confidence has increased, and the suppressed market and consumption are gradually being released.
With the development and application of new technologies such as big data and artificial intelligence, the performance and service of automobiles are constantly improving. "Our L3 autopilot system has completed tens of thousands of scene matching tests and 50 million kilometers of road tests." Zhu Huarong, president of Changan Automobile, said that in the traffic jam scene, the system can support unmanned driving up to 40 kilometers per hour. Experts believe that new technologies will make cars more "smart" and bring new consumption growth points.
Hebei Qinghe auto parts enterprises resumed work in an orderly manner to ensure production. Xinhua news agency
Ye Shengji said that last year, due to the downward pressure of the economy, Sino-US economic and trade frictions and some policy factors, residents were more cautious in consumption, and the automobile market was indeed declining. Since the outbreak, residents’ consumer confidence has also been greatly affected. Therefore, it is necessary to vigorously stabilize and protect employment, boost consumer confidence, and promote the continuous recovery and development of the automobile market, thus promoting the steady and healthy development of the economy and forming a virtuous circle.
"The need for cars in cities such as Beijing is great." Ye Shengji said that in the second half of this year, Beijing plans to issue 20,000 new energy indicators to "car-free families" at one time. Although it has positive effects, objectively speaking, the effect is limited. All localities should faithfully implement the policies of steady growth and promotion fees promulgated by the central government, and "loosen" the restrictions on purchases, especially the policies for new energy vehicles. At the same time, more efforts should be made in urban planning, road facilities, traffic management, parking lots and other infrastructure construction to promote the coordinated development of automobile consumption and urban construction.
Yao Jingyuan, a special researcher in the State Council Counselor’s Office, said that at present, there is no surplus in China’s automobile industry, and there is still demand in the market. The automobile industry has a long chain, which can stimulate more than 150 industries such as steel, rubber, glass and leather manufacturing, and has a strong function of promoting employment. Therefore, the focus of policy should shift from restricting automobile consumption to guiding the rational use of automobiles, solving problems such as congestion and improving the level of urban governance.
2. The sales growth rate of new energy vehicles is obvious, and the positive role of the policy has appeared.
[case]
Not long ago, Ms. Wang, a post-90s Internet practitioner, spent about 280,000 yuan to buy a domestic Tesla Model 3 new energy vehicle. "I placed an order last year, and the price was lowered some time ago. When I bought it, it was tens of thousands of dollars cheaper than before, which was quite cost-effective." She said. Experts believe that the localization of Tesla will bring "catfish effect" and promote many new energy automobile brands in China to actively participate in the competition.
Like Ms. Wang, many people are paying attention to the development trend of new energy vehicles.
Miao Wei, Minister of Industry and Information Technology, said that since the outbreak, the production and sales of new energy vehicles, like traditional vehicles, have been greatly affected. China has formulated a series of policies and measures to promote the development of new energy vehicles, especially delaying the subsidy for new energy vehicles and exemption from vehicle purchase tax by two years, so as to restore the growth of production and sales of new energy vehicles.
Judging from the current situation, the positive role of relevant policies is emerging. In May, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 84,000 and 82,000 respectively, up 3.5% and 12.2% from the previous month and down 25.8% and 23.5% from the same period last year. Compared with last month, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles have increased.
Press the "accelerate button" when Anhui Wuhu automobile enterprises resume work and production. Xinhua news agency
Although the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued the growth momentum in May, the market situation of new energy vehicles is still very grim. Ye Shengji analyzed that the cost of new energy vehicles in China is too high, and the cost of batteries accounts for more than 40% of the cost of the whole vehicle. In addition, the infrastructure such as charging piles is not perfect enough, and market consumption is affected. In addition, in terms of high-end products, many enterprises in China are not well prepared for technology and are somewhat out of touch with the market.
"The subsidy policy for new energy vehicles and other support policies should keep pace with the times in combination with the industrialization." Ye Shengji believes that all localities can introduce relevant policies to promote the development of new energy vehicles according to local conditions, promote industrial iteration, transformation and upgrading, and achieve high-quality development. Policies on crossing and bridge fees, parking fees, scrapping of old vehicles (giving priority and preferential treatment to replace new energy vehicles) should be fully implemented.
Shi Minjie, an engineer from the Institute of Science and Technology and Standards of China Electronic Information Industry Development Research Institute, suggested that the subsidy policy should include the requirements on the investment intensity of R&D of automobile enterprises, the development and application of new technologies, and guide enterprises to increase their investment in technology R&D, so that subsidies can really fall on the technological upgrading of new energy vehicles in China. At the same time, speed up the construction of the standard system of the whole industrial chain of new energy vehicles, take advantage of China’s super-large market size, promote the standardization process, and control the initiative in standard setting.
"We should encourage the development of different technical routes." Shi Minjie said that he supports the development of new business models such as "separation of vehicle and electricity", encourages enterprises to further improve the safety and reliability of the whole vehicle, and develops and produces new energy automobile products with advanced underlying operating system, electronic and electrical system architecture and intelligent and networked characteristics.
Miao Wei pointed out that in the future, we will pay close attention to the development of new energy vehicles, so that they can have a better use environment and more consumers are willing to choose new energy vehicles. From the supply side, the "streamline administration, delegate power, strengthen regulation and improve services" reform will be further intensified, and the OEM production of new energy vehicles will be released in an orderly manner; At the same time, the brand authorization pilot will be implemented for enterprises that develop innovative new energy vehicles. From the demand side, in addition to implementing fiscal and taxation support policies, it will also encourage the development of power exchange mode and encourage local governments to use more new energy vehicles in the field of public services. From the user side, we will continue to increase the construction of charging and replacing infrastructure, encourage all kinds of charging and replacing facilities to achieve interconnection, and encourage local governments to introduce preferential policies on parking and traffic for the use of new energy vehicles.
3. The risk of international supply chain is generally controllable, and there are more opportunities for world cooperation.
[status quo]
In May this year, China brand passenger cars sold a total of 571,000 vehicles, up 0.4% year-on-year, accounting for 34.1% of the total passenger car sales, down 2.2 percentage points from the same period of last year. Experts said that due to the epidemic, the automobile market demand has not recovered, and the market share of China brand cars is declining, and the decline is not small, but the product sales of some internationally renowned automobile companies are growing rapidly, which shows that our brand strength and product strength are not enough, so we should pay attention to it.
"From a big car country to a strong car country, China brand cars must be stronger and bigger, which is the foundation." Ye Shengji said that brand influence is not formed overnight and needs continuous cultivation and accumulation. However, we must also realize that now is the era of big data, and the cycle of cultivating a brand may be greatly shortened. As long as the products are excellent, the performance is excellent, and the quality and reliability are excellent, consumers’ cognition will be formed soon.
Ye Shengji said that in the future development process, all relevant enterprises in China should practice hard, learn from internationally renowned brand car companies, work hard to break through key core technologies, work hard on quality and reliability, and constantly enhance brand influence and product competitiveness. After decades of development, especially after more than 40 years of reform and opening up, China’s automobile industry has a relatively complete industrial system, and some key enterprises have achieved good results in improving product quality and brand reputation. We are full of confidence in the future development of China brand cars.
At present, the epidemic is still spreading around the world, which has a great impact on human production and life and world economic and social development. It is necessary to pay more attention to the global epidemic prevention and control and the changes in the industrial development situation.
"Affected by the epidemic, there are certain risks in the international supply chain of automobiles." Ye Shengji said that from the current tracking situation, the risks of the international supply chain are generally controllable. In the future, we should further follow the international epidemic situation, take relevant measures in time, and make efforts to ensure the safety and controllability of the industrial chain and supply chain.
Miao Wei emphasized that the epidemic has had a great impact on the global automobile supply chain, the automobile market has fallen sharply, and the industrial structure is facing adjustment. How to properly deal with it requires in-depth thinking and discussion of countermeasures. The automobile industry is a typical international and market-oriented industry. The epidemic situation knows no national boundaries, and so does the global automobile supply chain. Enterprises in this industry should make concerted efforts and strengthen cooperation in Qi Xin to jointly meet the challenge of the epidemic situation. China government will unswervingly open wider to the outside world, continuously optimize the business environment, promote high-quality economic development, and provide more cooperation opportunities for the world.
[Micro-survey]
# Will you buy a new energy car? #
The subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles was extended for two years; Hainan buys new energy vehicles with a reward of 10,000 yuan each; Shenzhen Transportation Bureau issued policies to promote the promotion of new energy vehicles & HELIP; … Recently, the consumption of new energy vehicles has ushered in many benefits. Some people say that it is the general trend for new energy vehicles to replace traditional fuel vehicles. Some people say that charging is more convenient than refueling and saving money. Others hold a wait-and-see attitude for the consideration of cruising range and charging. Are you considering buying new energy vehicles? How to treat the future development of new energy vehicles?
@allison06FD：Optimistic about the future of new energy vehicles, will buy.
@Jevensflower：If the disposal of scrapped batteries can be done well, I will buy it.
@ Think about Grace:An oil car and a new energy car are economical and convenient to drive in and around the city.
@ 京京京京京京京 gave me three views:I want to buy it, but I can’t get the number.
@x Shao Shao jun x:I am a new energy vehicle owner. Generally speaking, in a city with relatively complete charging facilities like Beijing, the convenience of using new energy vehicles is ok, charging is fast, and the cost of using vehicles is really low. But if it’s a long distance, it’s still more troublesome, and it’s no problem to walk in the city.
@ LinYu:The lack of rechargeable parking spaces is also a problem.
(Guangming Daily reporter chenchen finishing)
Guangming Daily (11th edition, June 18th, 2020)