苏州晚上必去的地方

CCTV News:According to the latest influenza surveillance released by China CDC, since January, the positive rate of influenza virus detection in southern and northern provinces of China has been declining, but the number of respiratory diseases in various places has remained at a high level, and cough patients account for a relatively high proportion of the patients. Some hospitals have also set up cough clinics for this purpose.

According to the doctor, cough is actually a protective reflex of the human body and a natural reaction of the body to remove foreign bodies and secretions from the respiratory tract. In the interview, the reporter found that many patients, especially children, have recovered from respiratory diseases, but their cough is still not good. Most of them are irritating dry cough or cough accompanied by a small amount of white mucus, and there is nothing abnormal after chest X-ray examination. Many parents feel very anxious because of the chronic cough. The doctor suggested that we should first judge whether the cough is acute or chronic. If it is chronic, it is recommended to confirm whether there is a potential disease.

Shen Kunling, Chief Physician, Department of Respiratory Medicine, Beijing Children’s Hospital Affiliated to Capital Medical University:That is, more than 4 weeks, we call it chronic cough, but within 4 weeks, it is called acute cough, so some children, for example, are basically cured in 2, 3 and 4 weeks, and this is no problem. However, some patients will cough for more than 4 weeks. There are several reasons to consider. The first one is that the original A stream may be particularly heavy, or there is B stream after A stream, or mycoplasma after A stream, or bacterial infection after A stream. This mixed infection will cause serious damage to that epithelium, so he will continue to cough; Another situation depends on whether the child has a basic problem. The most common basic problem is that the child has allergies.

[Expert Tips] Avoid blindly relieving cough and abusing antibiotics.

The doctor said that cough after respiratory tract infection is very common. If it lasts within 4 weeks and there is no aggravation, there is no need to go to the hospital repeatedly. In the home care of post-infection cough, the most common misunderstanding is blind cough suppression and abuse of antibiotics. Abuse of cough inhibitors may inhibit the natural cleaning process of respiratory tract and prolong the course of disease.

Shen Kunling, Chief Physician, Department of Respiratory Medicine, Beijing Children’s Hospital Affiliated to Capital Medical University:Children still do not advocate the use of central antitussive drugs. First, cough has its own protective effect on the body. After another reason is removed, in fact, many coughs will be relieved. Many parents were very anxious, and then they started taking drugs when they coughed. They used drugs indiscriminately and asked him what drugs he used. He said that I used antibiotics, and he didn’t know what antibiotics you asked. These antibiotics are left over from the last illness, so I’ll give them to him now. In fact, this is not standardized. First of all, it is abused, then it is useless when it should be used, and there is not enough course of treatment when it should be used. These will cause the child’s condition to persist.

Experts remind that antibiotics are only effective for bacterial infections, and the functional development of children’s organs is still not perfect. Improper medication may cause some adverse reactions, causing organ damage and so on. Children are not a miniature version of adults, and it is not advisable to abuse drugs or use drugs at will. We must consider the safety and effectiveness of drug use and standardize drug use under the guidance of doctors or pharmacists.

[Expert tip] Correct atomization treatment can relieve chronic cough.

No matter what causes the recovery of chronic cough, it needs a process, during which children cough frequently and even affect eating and sleeping. At this time, doctors will suggest using atomization to relieve symptoms. So what problems should we pay attention to when doing atomization?

Although atomization therapy is very common in clinic, in the interview, we learned that there are still many parents who think that once atomization therapy is used, the child’s condition is more serious. In fact, atomization inhalation is a means to help the mucosal barrier recover. By inhaling aerosol containing drugs, it directly acts on the lesion, reducing mucosal inflammation, reducing sputum and helping the mucosal recovery. When the mucosal recovery is good, the cough will naturally be alleviated. At present, atomization treatment is mainly aimed at post-infection cough, infant wheezing, cough variant asthma and so on.

Shen Kunling, Chief Physician, Department of Respiratory Medicine, Beijing Children’s Hospital Affiliated to Capital Medical University:Generally speaking, we should master the principle of five R’s in drug use, that is, five correct patients, the right drugs, the right way of use, the right course of treatment, the right devices and so on. The effect of atomization in crying state is worse than that in quiet state, so it is best to let children be quiet, such as watching cartoons, and inhale normally in quiet state. In addition, we should pay attention to the course of treatment and have enough courses of treatment.

In logistics and express transportation, we are most familiar with trucks or trucks. A large number of people may confuse trucks and trucks and think that they are just different names, but they are actually a kind of vehicle.

Actually, this is not the case. Trucks are not trucks, and trucks are not trucks. There are differences between them.

Today, Lengyi Technology will popularize the knowledge of trucks for everyone. Although both trucks and trucks are trucks and support truck loans, there are still some small differences. So what is the difference between them?

First, the truck is four-wheeled with a load of about 2.5-5 tons. Trucks have 6 wheels, 10 wheels, 12 wheels, 16 wheels, 20 wheels and 22 wheels, and the load ranges from ten tons to dozens of tons.

Second, the truck has no shed (top cover) and no shelter, so it is not suitable for long-distance transportation of goods. But trucks are generally transported over long distances.

Thirdly, the official name of Truck is GOODS VEHICLE, which is a form of automobile used to carry goods and commodities. Wagon is a kind of commercial vehicle designed and equipped mainly for carrying goods, whether it can be towed or not.

Fourth, trucks are also loaded with goods, which means that trucks can be trucks, but trucks are not necessarily trucks.

I believe that many people see the data of 6×4, 6×2 and 8×4 when buying trucks. What do these data mean? People who don’t know the meaning of these data may have a hard time judging when buying a car. What kind of car is suitable for them? The following small series will explain it to you.

First of all, we need to understand the driving form, which refers to the layout and the number and position of driving wheels.

FF is front-wheel drive of front engine. FR is front engine rear wheel drive. MR is driven by the rear wheel of a mid-engine 4WD is a four-wheel drive. AWD is a full-time four-wheel drive.

The common driving forms of trucks are 4X2, 6X2, 6X4, 8X4, etc. The number before "X" indicates the total number of vehicles, and the number after "X" indicates the number of driving wheels. If two wheels are installed, one wheel is counted, and one axle is counted as two wheels.

Divide the two numbers by two, that is, the number of automobile axles and the number of driving axles. For example, 8X4 means that the automobile has four axles, two of which are driving axles.

4X2 drive form: It is actually a two-axle truck, which is also commonly known as a single-axle vehicle. It has four wheels in total, and the two wheels at the rear axle bear the driving function, so it is marked as 4×2.

6X2: Three-axle vehicles are generally divided into two situations, one is that the front axle is the guide bridge, the second axle is the suspension bridge, and the third axle is the suspension bridge. The other is that the front axle is the guide axle, the second axle is the follow-up guide axle and the third axle is the drive axle. At present, the double front axle design 6X2 drive mode is common in China, while the rear suspension axle design is widely used abroad.

6X4: Three-axle vehicle, with front axle as guide axle and rear two axles as drive axles.

8X4: Four-axle vehicle, the front axle is the guide axle, the second axle is the follow-up guide axle, and the rear axle is the drive axle.

The above is some information that Xiaobian knows about the difference between trucks and trucks. I hope it will help everyone, about the difference between trucks and trucks.

What do you think about trucks and vans?

　　Youth is like a sea of flowers in May, and youth is like the rising sun. Recently, the May 4th theme group day activities have been widely carried out in various places, inheriting the red gene, carrying forward the spirit of struggle and playing the strong voice of youth serving the country. From the countryside to the city, from the inland to the frontier, from the scientific research base to the workshop, the vast number of young people can withstand the wind and rain, the tempering and the beating, and strive to leap forward and run on the track of youth.

　　The journey is picturesque and the struggle is like a song. General Secretary of the Supreme Leader emphasized in the Party’s Report to the 20th CPC National Congress that the spirit of struggle should be promoted in the whole society. The spirit of struggle is "more ambition for sacrifice", "Qian Shan is only idle", "unite and revitalize China" and "I don’t have to be successful, but I must be successful". It is precisely because of the strong traction of the spirit of struggle that we have the development achievements of "shocking the world", the affectionate confession of "having no regrets in this life", the calm self-confidence of "looking straight at the world" and the strategic determination of "nothing can stop it". The grand goal of building a strong country and rejuvenating the nation is inspiring and inspiring. We have created glorious history through United struggle, and we will also open up a bright future through United struggle.

　　The ideal sail of life should be raised by struggle. Struggle towards overcoming difficulties can temper a person’s will quality. Striving for a better life can improve a family’s happiness index. Striving for a common ideal can change the ethos of the whole society. Beautiful ideals have never been readily available, and they are inseparable from the hard work of hard work. Since ancient times, the people of China have understood that there has never been a good thing in the world, and it is necessary to struggle to be happy. Striving for the Chinese dream of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation is not only full of challenges, but also a rare opportunity in our lives. Everyone enjoys the opportunity to shine in life, the opportunity to realize their dreams and the opportunity to grow and progress with the motherland and the times. Everyone should cherish this great era and be a struggler in the new era.

　　For a long time, the spirit of struggle has been reflected in the green butterfly that turns the desert into an oasis and the barren hills into green mountains and green hills, engraved in the wonders of mountain villages such as cliff canals, cliff ladders and wall-hanging highways, displayed in the elegant demeanor of winning glory for the country, and concentrated in the minute-by-minute protection of the country, the people and the country are safe and the years are quiet … … The spirit of struggle has never been an empty slogan, but it is embodied in doing every little thing well, completing every task and fulfilling every responsibility. From the "westward migration" of Xi ‘an Jiaotong University who listened to the party’s call to study and serve the country, to the old reclamation team of Dachen Island who volunteered to start a business in a hard place, from Gan Zuchang and Gong Quanzhen, who put down their honor and returned to their hometown to become farmers, to the "Yumai sisters" who took root in the border of the motherland like Gesanghua, the deeds of several generations of strugglers have shown that everyone can create extraordinary achievements in ordinary posts by doing ordinary things well in a down-to-earth manner.

　　Looking back on the past, a philosophy is more profound: United struggle is the only way for Chinese people to create great historical achievements. General Secretary of the Supreme Leader stressed: "Unity formed around a clear goal of struggle is the strongest unity, and struggle based on close unity is the most powerful struggle." The whole party should persist in taking the people’s yearning for a better life as the goal of struggle, earnestly implement the spirit of struggle throughout the whole process of carrying out great struggles, building great projects, advancing great undertakings and realizing great dreams, and form a vivid situation of competing and United struggle. Let every dream grow in the sun and every flower bloom in the wind. The best environment is a good system and mechanism. Carry forward the spirit of struggle, and at the same time, improve the system and mechanism to support the struggle, such as deepening the reform of the system and mechanism of talent development, and maximizing the feelings of serving the country, the spirit of struggle and the creativity of the vast number of talents.

　　"It’s already green in Qian Shan, so it’s advisable to take advantage of the east wind to set sail". Going to the expedition of glory and dreams, the whole party and the whole society will carry forward the spirit of struggle, and work hard, tenaciously, continuously and United to create a better China!

Text/Sina Financial Opinion Leaders Column research institute　

5G may bring new kinetic energy to the next wave of economic growth and have a positive impact on various industries around the world. The vertical application of the three technical scenarios of 5G in the fields of cloud (cloud computing), network (communication network) and terminal (intelligent terminal) will accelerate the digital transformation of traditional industries and bring certain industrial investment opportunities.

■ 5G is the core engine leading the innovation and development in the information field. Historically, countries with the first-Mover advantage in mobile communication have gained huge economic benefits. 5G may bring new kinetic energy to the next wave of economic growth and have a positive impact on various industries around the world. The vertical application of the three technical scenarios of 5G in the fields of cloud (cloud computing), network (communication network) and terminal (intelligent terminal) will accelerate the digital transformation of traditional industries and bring certain industrial investment opportunities.

■ 5G network construction drives capital expenditure into a new rising cycle. The construction of 5G network has gone through three stages: standard setting, spectrum auction and investment construction. Choosing the construction path of different frequency bands may determine the success or failure of 5G network investment. Global operators actively deploy 5G network construction, and China, South Korea and Japan lead the global 5G commercialization. With the landing of China’s 5G commercial license, the scale construction and commercialization of 5G have begun. It is estimated that China’s 5G network investment will exceed one trillion, and the investment opportunities of China’s communication equipment enterprises and their supply chains are significant.

■ Diversification of 5G terminals brings medium and long-term investment opportunities. From the perspective of industrial development path, 5G terminals will gradually evolve from the consumer terminals of the Internet of People to the Internet of Things terminals of the Internet of Everything, and the terminal types are diversified. The maturity of the supply chain has driven the rapid development of the consumer terminal market. In the next three years, 5G mobile phones are expected to usher in explosive growth, and the scale of the 5G terminal market will far exceed the scale of investment in 5G networks. The terminal market of Internet of Things will maintain a long-term high growth rate, and the terminal markets of smart home, car networking and industrial Internet of Things have medium and long-term investment opportunities.

■ 5G industry cloud has long-term development prospects in the vertical field. From the perspective of application scenarios, 5G promotes the convergence of cloud network services, and gradually evolves from a cloud platform that provides virtualized basic resources to an industry cloud in a typical vertical field. 5G not only continues to drive the rapid growth of data center infrastructure, but also further integrates with education, security, entertainment, finance, energy, industry and other fields to create new kinetic energy for economic development.

In the past 40 years, a new generation of revolutionary technology has emerged in mobile communication every decade. The new technology has continuously promoted the rapid development of the information technology industry and promoted the prosperity and development of all fields of the global economy and society.

The fifth generation mobile communication technology (5G) has arrived. As the infrastructure of the new generation information industry, 5G network has three characteristics: ultra-high speed, ultra-large connection and ultra-low delay. The construction of 5G network will accelerate the development of upstream and downstream industrial chains such as communication, electronics, computers, semiconductors, Internet, artificial intelligence and big data, and drive the digital transformation of vertical industries such as industry, automobile, energy, medical care, finance and public utilities. The Internet of Everything changes the mode of production and organization of human beings, and intelligent manufacturing promotes the optimization of industrial structure and efficiency, thus promoting the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries and promoting the sustained and rapid development of the global economy and society.

This report starts with the impact of communication technology changes on global economic and social development, and analyzes the industrial maturity and investment opportunities of 5G in various fields from three aspects: cloud (cloud platform), network (communication network) and terminal.

1.5G is the core engine leading the innovation and development in the information field.

1.1 Countries with first-Mover advantage in mobile communication have gained huge economic benefits.

Countries with first-Mover advantage for each generation of mobile communication have a major share of the global market in their domestic industrial chains. Modern mobile communication originated from the concept of cellular network in 1970s. With the progress of science and technology in 1980s, the global mobile communication network developed rapidly. AMPS system, represented by Motorola, USA, led the global communication market in the 1G era by virtue of its technological advantages.

In the 2G era, Europe learned many lessons from the 1G era and took the lead in promoting the construction of 2G networks by adopting a unified GSM standard. European communication enterprises such as Ericsson, Nokia, Alcatel and Siemens rose up, leading the global industrial chain and bringing huge economic benefits to Europe. With the backwardness of the United States in the 2G communication market, Motorola, Lucent and other companies in the United States have stepped down from the peak of history.

In the 3G era, Europe thought the business prospect was unclear, hesitated on 3G deployment, and did not form an ecosystem of mobile phone industry. Japan seized this opportunity and made a profit in a brand-new way. In 1999, NTT DOCOMO, a Japanese operator, launched the i-mode mobile phone ecosystem, which provided internet services such as surfing, social networking and music. I-mode was launched eight years earlier than Apple’s iOS ecosystem, which brought huge commercial benefits to the Japanese industrial chain represented by NTT and NEC.

In the 4G era, the United States corrected its previous mistakes. The Federal Communications Commission actively carried out spectrum auctions and allowed operators to use frequency bands more flexibly to build networks. The birth and rise of Apple’s iPhone and iOS, as well as the global promotion of Android, laid the foundation for the global leadership of the 4G era in the United States. However, Japan’s i-mode system has not been promoted globally. From the early days of 4G, Japan kept pace with the United States, and the United States completely occupied the global control of 4G in the later period. What followed was that NEC, Panasonic, Toshiba and Fujitsu in the i-mode ecosystem gradually withdrew from the smart phone market, and international brands such as Apple, Samsung, Huawei and OPPO rose in an all-round way by relying on the iOS and Android eco-chains.

Figure 1: Development of Mobile Communication

Source: China Merchants Bank Research Institute

The Influence of Leading in the 4G Era on American Economy

America’s leading position in 4G has made great contributions to the American economy. In the 4G era, the contribution of the mobile communication industry to the GDP of the United States increased from the original forecast of $350.3 billion in 2016 to $445 billion. From 2011 to 2014, the number of jobs related to mobile communication increased by 84%. In 2016, the international revenue brought by 4G to American companies reached $125.5 billion. Among them, the income from equipment manufacturing and sales is 64.9 billion US dollars, the international income from application stores is 25 billion US dollars, and the international income from equipment components is 35.6 billion US dollars. The content revenue of the app store has also increased rapidly, from $8.2 billion in 2011 to $54.1 billion in 2016.

Figure 2: The influence of 2：4G on the GDP of American mobile communication.

Source: Recon Analytics, China Merchants Bank Research Institute

Figure 3: Impact of 3：4G on App Store Revenue

Source: Recon Analytics, China Merchants Bank Research Institute

Looking back on the development process from 1G to 4G, every country with leading mobile communication technology leads the global mobile communication market, and its domestic mobile communication enterprises occupy a major share in the world and have gained huge economic benefits. When these countries lost their leadership in mobile communication technology, their domestic communication enterprises suffered a blow. The development of a new generation of communication technology is expected to create new kinetic energy for the innovation-driven economy.

1.2 5G may bring new kinetic energy to the next wave of economic growth.

5G has a positive impact on the global economy

5G will have a positive impact on all industrial sectors. According to IHS Markit’s estimation, by 2035, the global output generated by 5G will reach $12.3 trillion. Among them, the manufacturing industry achieved an output of about 3.4 trillion US dollars (accounting for 28% of the total output), and the information and communication industry achieved an output of about 1.4 trillion US dollars, followed by wholesale and retail, public services, construction, finance and insurance, transportation and storage, professional services, hotels, agriculture, forestry and fisheries, real estate, education, public utilities, mining, health and social work, art and entertainment.

5G may make a great contribution to China’s economic output. According to the model calculation of China ICT Institute, in terms of output scale, the direct output and indirect output of China’s economy driven by 5G will reach 6.3 trillion yuan and 10.6 trillion yuan respectively in 2030. In terms of direct output, the compound annual growth rate in the past ten years is 29%. In terms of indirect output, the compound annual growth rate is 24%. From the contribution to economic added value, it is estimated that the GDP directly created and indirectly pulled by 5G will be 3 trillion and 3.6 trillion respectively in 2030. The compound annual growth rate of GDP directly created by 5G is about 41%; The compound annual growth rate of GDP indirectly driven by 5G will reach 24%.

5G has a conductive effect on social and economic development. 5G can stimulate various industrial sectors to increase digital investment, accelerate the digital transformation of traditional industries, promote business application innovation, expand the international market space of information products, and enhance China’s comprehensive advantages.

Figure 4: Global 5G Support Industry Output Forecast in 2035

Source: IHS Markit, China Merchants Bank Research Institute.

Figure 5: The Impact of 5：5G on China’s Economy

Source: China ICT Institute, China Merchants Bank Research Institute.

The three major scenarios of 5G continue to drive economic transformation and upgrading

From the development path of the global information industry, the Internet of Everything has to go through three stages: people, people and machines, and machines and machines. Judging from the development sequence of the three major technical scenarios of 5G, the first stage (2019-2021) takes people first, and the large bandwidth (eMBB) application scenario is the main one; In the second stage (2021-2023), human-computer interaction and mMTC Internet of Things applications rose in an all-round way; In the third stage (2023-long-term), all things are connected, and industrial control applications with low latency (uRLLC) are gradually maturing.

Figure 6: Three Application Scenarios of 6：5G

Source: China Merchants Bank Research Institute

The characteristics of 5G technology will catalyze three kinds of scenarios and accelerate the digital transformation of traditional industries. Compared with the single human-to-human communication scenario of 4G, 5G will support three scenarios: eMBB (Enhanced Mobile Broadband), mMTC (Large-scale Machine Communication) and uRLLC (High Reliability and Low Delay Communication). The main vertical application fields include industry, automobile, energy, medical care, finance and public utilities. The intersection of the three technical scenarios and vertical industries is expected to form a variety of application ecology between people and things, things and things, and promote the digital transformation and upgrading of traditional industries.

EMBB high-traffic mobile broadband scenario, to improve the network capacity to meet the needs of large bandwidth, the network peak rate can reach 1-10 G. The construction of 5G network in 2019-2021 is mainly to provide network services for eMBB scenarios. The 5G base station, transmission network and core network on the network side have great investment opportunities. Based on eMBB scenario, 5G terminals are diversified, and the categories of mobile phones, tablets, 4K/8K TVs, AR/VR terminals, security terminals and vehicle terminals are becoming more and more abundant. The application scenarios are more subdivided and diversified, and cloud AR/VR, cloud games, cloud video, cloud education, etc. provide life and entertainment services in large bandwidth scenarios.

MMTC large-scale Internet of Things scenario, which effectively supports massive Internet of Things devices access, and the connection density can reach 1 million/km2. In 2021-2023, the 5G network will be upgraded by NB-IoT, and the core network will be completely SA-independent. 5G terminals have exploded in many fields such as smart wear, smart home, intelligent transportation, and intelligent logistics. Cloud applications meet the needs of terminals, and there are platforms for Internet of Things segments such as cloud logistics, cloud transportation and cloud industry, which cooperate with the unified networking, management and operation of things.

The high-reliability and low-delay scenario of uRLLC belongs to the control application scenario, and the transmission delay can reach millisecond, which will be an important growth field of 5G. 5G network construction after 2023 will pay more attention to network slicing and edge computing capabilities, and provide ultra-low delay network capabilities; The 5G terminals in the uRLLC scene are mainly self-driving vehicles and industries.Intelligent equipment such as automatic control equipment and service robots; Cloud applications meet the needs of smart devices and provide control applications that meet the stringent requirements of the industrial Internet, such as cloud autopilot, cloud industrial control and cloud services.

1.3 Investment Path of 5G Industry　

From the development path of global information industry, 5G has certain industrial investment opportunities in cloud (cloud platform), network (communication network) and terminal (terminal) industrial chains.

Cloud platform develops from basic service to industry cloud service. In the past ten years, cloud computing technology has developed rapidly, and it has become a trend for enterprises to go to the cloud. The three basic service modes of cloud computing (IaaS, PaaS and SaaS) have been fully matured, and they are constantly expanding to the deeper industrial application field of XaaS. Focusing on the digital upgrade of vertical industry applications, 5G will promote the traditional vertical industries such as education, medical care, energy and industry to generate new cloud demand, and build a new intelligent cloud architecture with cloud network integration, edge cloud collaboration and comprehensive cloud services.

Figure 7: Industrial Topology of 7：5G Cloud Network

Source: China Merchants Bank Research Institute

The network layer advances from serving consumer terminals to the intelligent scheduling architecture of the Internet of Everything. In order to support the 5G characteristics of large bandwidth, large connection and low delay, key technologies and networking schemes such as new antenna air interface technology, large-scale antenna array, wireless network CU/DU (centralized/distributed) architecture, network slicing, edge computing and SDN (software-defined network) are adopted to create a new ecology for traditional vertical industries and open up huge value growth space for the industry.

The terminal layer is constantly spreading from consumer terminals to Internet of Things terminals in traditional industries. 5G terminals will be integrated with more and more industries, thus realizing more functions and services. New products such as wearable devices, smart homes, vehicle terminals, educational robots and service robots are constantly emerging, showing a diversified development trend in the future, accompanied by more and more Internet of Things applications, and the Internet of Everything will then push the terminal market into a new development height.

2.5G network construction drives capital expenditure into a new rising cycle.

The construction of 5G network has to go through three stages: standard setting, spectrum auction and investment construction. The progress of each stage directly affects the final completion and commercial operation of the 5G network, and choosing the construction path of different frequency bands may determine the success or failure of the 5G network investment.

2.1 5G standard spectrum landing promotes commercial acceleration

The 5G standard has gradually landed and commercial applications have been launched one after another.

The greater the contribution to the technology of the 5G standard, the more patents of 5G SEP, and the more dividends of the 5G industry will be shared in the future.

R15, the standard of large bandwidth eMMB scene, landed first. Judging from the freezing sequence of 5G standards, R15 has been frozen in the first stage, and applications that need large bandwidth, such as 4K live broadcast, security monitoring, VR video and so on, will take the lead in popularization and application, and related chips, network equipment and terminal industrial chain are all mature and have the conditions for large-scale networking construction.

Figure 8: 5 G standard promotion and industrial chain progress

Source: GSA, China Merchants Bank Research Institute

The standards for Internet of Things (mMTC) and low latency (uRLLC) scenarios will be discussed and improved in the second phase of R16 and R17 standards. At present, the Internet of Things is dominated by NB-IoT, LoRa and eMTC technologies, and it is expected that NB-IoT will continue to be adopted as the standard of 5G Internet of Things in R16 version to ensure the continuity of network investment and user services from 4G era to 5G era. The R16 standard will be frozen until 2020. The R17 standard will be established at the end of 2019, and the R17 standard will be frozen until 2022, and the maturity of related vertical industries is expected to be after 2023.

Chinese enterprises have the advantages of global 5G patents and standards. Judging from the global number of patent applications for 5G SEP (standard necessity) and the global contribution of 5G standard technology, China has become the first group of 5G in the world. SEP patent refers to the patent that is included in international standards and must be used in the implementation of standards, that is to say, when standardization organizations formulate certain standards, they must be involved. With a large number of 5G SEP patents, it has a strong industry leading edge. Judging from the contribution of 5SEP patents and 5G standard technologies, Huawei and ZTE have become the first group, and OPPO has entered the forefront of the world through years of advanced layout and active R&D investment. The advantages of 5G patents and standards lay a solid foundation for future industry competition.

Figure 9: Global patent applications for 5G SEP (July 2019)

Source: IPlytics, China Merchants Bank Research Institute.

Figure 10: Global 5G standard technology contribution (July 2019)

Source: IPlytics, China Merchants Bank Research Institute.

With the acceleration of global spectrum auction, network investment is imminent.

In order to speed up the construction of 5G, countries around the world have accelerated the auction of 5G spectrum. The coverage of 5G network needs the spectrum of low frequency band (below 2GHz), middle frequency band (2GHz to 6GHz, also called Sub-6) and high frequency band (above 6GHz, also called millimeter wave) to realize the complete vision of IMT-2020 mobile broadband for the mass market. According to GSA statistics, as of August 2019, 71 countries/regions around the world are considering or allocating 5G spectrum, 34 countries/regions have completed the auction of at least one frequency band suitable for 5G, and 40 countries have announced plans to continue the auction of 5G spectrum between 2019 and 2021.

The intermediate frequency band is the best deployment frequency band for 5G, which has the characteristics of wide coverage and high capacity. The intermediate frequency band 3.3-4.2GHz is the most widely used 5G frequency band in the world, and it has been regarded as the main frequency band for 5G network construction by most countries. Korea, China and Japan took the lead in mid-band spectrum planning and allocation and 5G construction. Among them, South Korea allocated 3.42-3.7GHz, China allocated 2.515-2.675GHz, 3.5-3.7GHz and 4.8-4.9GHz, and Japan allocated 3.6-4.1GHz.

High-frequency band has a wider continuous spectrum, which can provide greater network speed. However, taking high-frequency band as the main construction frequency band of 5G has a huge investment scale and great investment risk. The United States has always wanted to be the leader of 5G, but because the mid-band spectrum has been occupied, the Federal Communications Commission auctioned the high-band spectrum of 37.6 GHz–38.6 GHz, 38.6 GHz–40 GHz and 47.2 GHz–48.2 GHz for 5G construction. The high-frequency band has the problems of short coverage distance of base stations and a large number of base stations for continuous coverage, while the frequency clearing and re-auction in the middle-frequency band in the United States will be in 2020 at the earliest, which may greatly delay the deployment process of its 5G. American operators Verizon and AT&T use high-band millimeter waves to launch 5G services, but their 5G network coverage is very limited. Therefore, American 5G is still in its infancy in terms of network coverage, performance and industrial application.

Figure 11: Global 5G spectrum distribution (August 2019)

Source: GSA, China Merchants Bank Research Institute

2.2 5G network investment ushered in a new round of rising cycle.

Countries have successively started to invest in 5G networks.

Global operators actively deploy 5G networks. From the second half of 2018 to the first half of 2019, countries have successively started 5G commercialization or related processes. As of August 2019, 296 operators in 100 countries are launching or conducting related 5G trials, of which 56 operators in 32 countries have announced the deployment of 5G networks, and 39 operators have announced the launch of 5G services.

Figure 12: Global 5G Commercial Time (August 2019)

Source: GSA, China Merchants Bank Research Institute

Figure 13: Global 5G Network Investment Progress (August 2019)

Source: GSA, China Merchants Bank Research Institute

The construction of 5G network is still in the early stage, and the number of commercial networks is still small. The proportion of global operators who have deployed 5G networks is only 19%. Most operators are still in the process of evaluation, testing, license application and network planning. The scale of deployed 5G networks is also small, and the construction of global operators’ 5G networks is still moving forward.

China, South Korea and Japan lead the promotion of global 5G commercialization. The development process of 5G is expected to go through the process from policy-driven to business-driven, and it is still in the policy-driven stage. China, Japan, South Korea and Europe are the first countries to commercialize 5G.

Table 1: Progress of 5G Commercialization in Major Countries in the World

Source: China Merchants Bank Research Institute

China’s 5G network investment may exceed one trillion

5G issued a commercial license and the scale construction kicked off. On June 6, 2019, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology、、5G commercial license issued by China Radio and Television. China Mobile, China Telecom and China Unicom are expected to spend 169.9 billion, 78 billion and 58 billion respectively in 2019. The total capital expenditure of the three major operators is 300 billion yuan, and the 5G part is about 33 billion yuan. Yang Jie, chairman of China Mobile, said that 5G construction will reach its peak in 2020-2022.

Figure 14: Five-G Networking Construction Strategies of Three Major Operators

Source: Operators, China Merchants Bank Research Institute.

The density of 5G base stations is expected to increase significantly. According to the propagation characteristics of electromagnetic waves, the frequency of electromagnetic waves is inversely proportional to the transmission distance. The higher the frequency of electromagnetic waves, the shorter the coverage distance of base stations. The main frequency band adopted by 2G is 900MHz, and the coverage radius is about 5-10 kilometers. 3G adopts 1.9-2.1GHz, with a coverage radius of about 2-5 kilometers; The main frequency bands adopted by 4G are 1.8-1.9GHz and 2.3-2.6GHz, and the coverage radius is about 1-3 kilometers. If 5G is used in the intermediate frequency bands of 2.6GHz, 3.4-3.6GHz and 4.8-4.9GHz, the coverage radius is about 300-500m. This means that the operating frequency band of 5G is higher, and the coverage of 5G base stations is smaller than that of 4G base stations. It is estimated that the number of 5G base stations will increase by 30%.

Figure 15: Relationship between Frequency Band and Base Station Coverage Distance

Source: China Merchants Bank Research Institute

Figure 16: 5 G base station coverage scenario

Source: China Merchants Bank Research Institute

Hong Jizhan is given priority to, supplemented by small base stations. There are three main scenarios for 5G network planning: dense urban areas, general urban areas and suburbs. The dense urban areas are mainly covered by high-capacity Hong Jizhan, the commercial office buildings are covered by medium and low-capacity room sub-systems, and the hot areas such as exhibitions and transportation hubs are covered by small base stations to realize high-quality and low-cost network construction. In general, the urban areas are mainly covered by Hong Jizhan with medium capacity, and the commercial office buildings are covered by low-capacity room sub-systems. Suburbs adopt low-capacity local key coverage in Hong Jizhan.

Telecom Unicom’s joint construction and sharing can be mutually beneficial and win-win. Under the condition of different 5G frequency bands and covering the same area, the number of 5G base stations to be built is also different. According to the ITU-3D NLOS road loss model test, the road loss at 3.5GHz is larger than that at 2.6GHz, and the penetration loss is higher. In the case of the same base station transmission power, the 3.5GHz band wants to cover the same area as the 2.6GHz band. Theoretically, the number of base stations of China Telecom and China Unicom is 38% higher than that of China Mobile. Therefore, the cooperation between China Telecom and China Unicom in the construction of 5G base stations can save money, give play to the sharing advantages and enhance the investment effect.

The investment scale of 5G is more than 50% higher than that of 4G. By the end of 2016, 3.15 million base stations had been built in the main investment period of 4G (2013-2016), including 1.51 million in China Mobile, 900,000 in China Telecom and 740,000 in China Unicom. Considering that the density of 5G base stations is significantly higher than that of 4G, according to the scale of 4G network investment, it is estimated that the three major operators will build 4 million 5G base stations in 2019-2022, and the number of 5G base stations will increase by about 27% compared with the number of 4G base stations in the same period in history. Among them, China Mobile has 2 million stations, and China Telecom and China Unicom have jointly built 2 million stations. The 5G base station adopts large-scale antenna technology, and the unit price of the base station is obviously improved; The 5G transmission network supports network slicing, and all transmission networks need to be newly built. The total investment of China’s three major operators in 4G reached 745 billion, according toAccording to the calculation of securities, China’s 5G network investment will be as high as 1.1 trillion yuan. Similar to the investment structure of 4G network, the largest capital expenditure is base station, followed by transmission network, core network and other operation support systems.

Table 2: Estimation of China’s Operators’ 5G Network Investment

Source: China Securities, China Merchants Bank Research Institute.

The investment rhythm of China’s 5G network

The capital expenditure of communication industry is cyclical. In the 3G and 4G era of operators, capital expenditure presents periodic changes, from small-scale construction one year before the issuance of licenses to large-scale construction three years after the issuance of licenses. The main construction period is four years. 3G license was issued on January 7th, 2009, and operators started to build 3G networks ahead of schedule in 2008. In 2008, operators’ capital expenditure showed signs of recovery, and 2009-2011 was the main investment period of 3G networks. The 4G license was issued on December 4, 2013, and operators began to build 4G networks in 2013. 2014-2016 is the main investment period of 4G networks. The 5G license was issued on June 6, 2019, and 2020-2022 will be the main investment period of 5G networks.

Two years after the issuance of the communication license, the capital expenditure peaked, and in the third year, the capital expenditure declined. The capital expenditure peaked in 2009-2010 after the issuance of 3G licenses, and in 2014-2015 after the issuance of 4G licenses. With the maturity of each generation of communication industry chain, following anti-Moore’s law, the cost and price of equipment in the third year of investment period decreased synchronously, which led to the reduction of capital expenditure of operators. From 2014 to 2016, the annual construction of 4G base stations of the three major operators reached 1.02 million stations, 1.07 million stations and 1.12 million stations respectively. Due to the price reduction of equipment, the capital expenditure in 2016 was lower than that in 2014 and 2015. 2019 is the first year of 5G investment and construction. It is estimated that 2020-2021 will be the peak period of 5G capital expenditure, and 5G capital expenditure will fall back in 2022.

Figure 17: Scale of Capital Expenditure of Three Major Operators

Source: Wind, China Merchants Bank Research Institute

Figure 18: Proportion of Capital Expenditure Structure of China Mobile

Source: Wind, China Merchants Bank Research Institute

The base station investment remained stable, and the transmission investment was concentrated in the early stage. From the path of network construction, the transmission network is built first, and the base station construction can be carried out on a large scale. From the perspective of China Mobile’s 4G investment process, transmission construction started early in 2013 before licensing, and the scale was gradually reduced in the later period; The scale of base station construction was small before licensing, and the base station investment was steadily advanced in 2014-2016 after licensing. It is estimated that the base station investment will be distributed smoothly in 2020-2022, the transmission investment will be concentrated in 2020-2021, and the stocking of the upstream supply chain will be about 3-6 months ahead of the capital expenditure of network equipment.

China’s communication equipment enterprises and supply chain investment opportunities are significant.

Huawei ZTE has a leading position in the global communication equipment market. According to the global communication equipment market report released by Dell‘Oro, the seven major equipment manufacturers in the world are Huawei, Nokia, Ericsson, Cisco, ZTE, Ciena and Samsung, which together account for about 80% of the global equipment vendors’ market share. Relying on the leading edge of standards and patents, Huawei’s market share in communication equipment continues to rise, and its global market share in 2019H1 reached 29%.After being punished by the United States in 2018, the global market share briefly fell to 7.7%, and in 2019H1, the market share was close to the historical high of 9.9%.

The upstream supply chain of Huawei ZTE has great investment opportunities. As of October 2019, from the published 5G commercial contracts, Huawei has more than 60 5G commercial contracts, more than 150,000 delivery base stations and more than 400,000 AAU modules. ZTE has more than 25 commercial contracts and more than 50,000 delivery base stations. The upstream supply chain enterprises with Huawei and ZTE as the core have shown signs of good overall performance and will have greater investment opportunities in the next 2-3 years.

3.5G terminal diversification brings medium and long-term investment opportunities.

From the development path of the 5G industry, 5G terminals will gradually evolve from consumer terminals dominated by the Internet of People to Internet of Things terminals dominated by the Internet of Everything. The terminal types are diversified, from mobile phones, AR/VR, smart wear and smart homes to car networking, commercial robots and industrial robots. 5G terminals have medium and long-term investment opportunities.

3.1 5G mobile phone market welcomes high growth opportunities.

The maturity of supply chain drives the rapid development of global 5G terminal market.

Global 5G mobile phones are experiencing explosive growth opportunities. From the global history of 4G development, the deployment of 4G networks has brought huge growth opportunities to the 4G smartphone market. The United States, Japan and South Korea started the construction of 4G networks in 2011, and China in Europe started the construction of 4G networks in 2013. The global construction of 4G networks has brought double-digit growth in the smartphone market for six consecutive years since 2010, and the scale of the 4G smartphone market has reached one trillion yuan. 5G network investment will help the global 5G mobile phone market usher in explosive growth opportunities. According to Strategy Analytics, by 2025, the global shipment of 5G mobile phones will exceed 1.5 billion. From 2019 to 2024, the shipments of 5G mobile phones will reach 2 million, 11 million, 77 million, 183 million, 416 million and 855 million respectively. IDC predicts that by 2020, 5G smartphone shipments will account for 8.9% of the total shipments, reaching 123.5 million units; By 2023, this proportion is expected to increase to 28.1%.

The global 5G terminal products are diversified. Through the joint efforts of the industry, the 5G mobile phone industry chain has matured. In 2019, major suppliers such as Qualcomm, Huawei, Samsung, MediaTek and Ziguang Zhanrui all launched 5G baseband chips. The maturity of the supply chain has promoted the rapid development of global 5G terminal products. China Mobile predicts that in 2020, more than 10 brands will launch 5G mobile phones, with more than 100 types of 5G mobile phones and terminals. According to GSA statistics, as of November 2019, there were more than 183 5G terminals in the world, involving 15 categories. Among them, there are 54 models of 5G mobile phones, 59 models of CPE (network terminal equipment), 34 models of 5G modules, 11 models of 5G hot products and 7 models of 5G routers. The diversification of 5G terminals provides a broad space for the development of various industries.

Global 5G commercial mobile phones are released one after another. Well-known manufacturers such as Huawei, Samsung, Xiaomi, OPPO and VIVO have successively released mass-produced 5G mobile phones. Samsung began selling Galaxy S10 5G mobile phones in April 2019, becoming the first mobile phone manufacturer in the world to announce the sale of 5G mobile phones. Huawei first launched Mate X, a commercial mobile phone based on 5G technology, at the Mobile World Congress in February 2019, and released Mate 20X 5G version in May 2019. In September 2019, Xiaomi launched two 5G mobile phones, Xiaomi 9 Pro 5G and Xiaomi MIX Alpha. It is estimated that there will be thousands of 5G mobile phones in 2021, which will greatly accelerate the penetration rate of 5G mobile phones.

Figure 21: Global 5G Mobile Phone Shipment Forecast

Figure 22: Global number of 5G terminals (November 2019)

Source: GSA, China Merchants Bank Research Institute

China’s 5G mobile phone market has great growth potential.

China is the world’s largest market for 5G smartphones. By the end of 2018, the number of mobile phone users in China was close to 1.2 billion, and the user penetration rate reached 82% of the total population, which was close to 85% in developed countries in Europe and America. In 2018, the global smartphone shipments were 1.456 billion, of which the total sales volume in China market was 398 million, accounting for 27%. Among the Top6 smartphone manufacturers in the world, Huawei, Xiaomi, OPPO and VIVO in China occupy four seats. In the second quarter of 2019, Huawei surpassed Apple to become the second largest smartphone manufacturer in the world. According to the GSMA forecast, by 2025, the global market share of 5G mobile phones will reach 15%, including 59% in South Korea, 50% in the United States, 48% in Japan, 29% in Europe and 28% in China. By 2025, the number of users of 5G mobile phones in China will exceed the sum of North America and Europe, reaching 460 million, making it the largest market for 5G smart phones.

The development speed of 5G mobile phones exceeded expectations. South Korea is the first country in the world to start large-scale commercialization of 5G. On April 3, 2019, Korean operators launched 5 G commercial services. At the beginning of May, the number of 5G users in South Korea reached 260,000. On June 10th, the 69th day of South Korea’s 5G commercialization, the number of 5G users reached 1 million, which was 11 days shorter than the time it took for 4G users to break through 1 million. At the beginning of August 2019, the number of 5G users in South Korea reached 2 million, faster than the same period of 4 G. The success of South Korea’s 5G business directly promoted the sales of Samsung’s 5G version of Galaxy Fold and Galaxy Note 10. According to the statistics of China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, as of October 8, 2019, there were nearly 10 million subscribers to China’s 5G package, including 5.8 million from China Mobile, 1.99 million from China Unicom and 2 million from China Telecom. On November 1, 2019, China officially commercialized 5G networks. On November 20, 2019, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology revealed that China’s 5G users signed 870,000 contracts. Xu Zhijun, the rotating chairman of Huawei, predicts that the number of 5G users in China will exceed 200 million in 2020.

Figure 25: Comparison of popularization speed of 4G/5G users in South Korea

Source: Zdnet, China Merchants Bank Research Institute

Figure 26: China Mobile’s 4G base station and user growth trend

Source: Wind, China Merchants Bank Research Institute

Investment rhythm of 5G mobile phone market

The scale of the 5G mobile phone market will exceed the investment scale of the 5G network. Looking back at the domestic 4G market, 4G licenses were issued in December 2013, and large-scale 4G network construction began in 2014. The growth of 4G users is in step with the construction of 4G networks, and the growth rate of 4G users is much higher than that of 4G base stations in the same period. In 2016, when the peak of 4G capital expenditure ended, the penetration rate of 4G users has reached 80%, and the replacement speed of 4G mobile phones is higher than the investment speed of 4G networks. Compared with the time rhythm of 5G network licensing and network construction, it can be predicted that the growth rate of 5G mobile phone market will also exceed the investment speed of 5G network. According to the forecast data of many institutions, in 2020, the market size of 5G mobile phones is expected to exceed 500 billion yuan. With the increasing proportion of sales of 5G mobile phones, the future 5G mobile phone market is expected to go to trillion scale, and there are great investment opportunities in the RF, camera, acousto-optic devices and other sub-sectors of the upstream supply chain of 5G mobile phones.

2020-2022 ushered in the peak of 5G replacement. From the history of 4G network construction and user growth, it can be predicted that 2020 will be the first year of 5G mobile phone explosion, and 2020-2022 will be the peak period of 5G replacement. By then, 5G mobile phones will drive the global smart phones to resume positive growth. In terms of the rhythm of the 5G terminal market, it is expected that the first half of 2020 will be in the market introduction period, and the second half of 2020 will enter the scale development period. Terminal manufacturers will launch low-and medium-priced products, and the scale of the 5G mobile phone market will continue to expand. It is estimated that by the end of 2020, the price of 5G mobile phone products will drop to 1500 yuan, and the market will be dominated by 5G mobile phones. In 2021, there will be a thousand yuan 5G mobile phone. Non-5G mobile phones and low-priced 5G mobile phones are expected to fully enter the ODM era, and the ODM market share will gradually expand.

3.2 5G IOT terminal market has great growth potential.

5G unified standards to promote the faster development of the Internet of Things

There are many standards of Internet of Things, which affect the development speed of the industry. The concept of Internet of Things began in 1998, and its vision is that everything in life can transmit information through network connection and realize the digitalization of the world. Due to the diversity of Internet of Things requirements, a number of Internet of Things technical standards have emerged. Power consumption, bandwidth, coverage distance and communication frequency have become the main factors in choosing Internet of Things technology. The existing technical standards of Internet of Things include Zigbee, WiFi, Bluetooth for short-distance communication technology and 2G, 4G, LoRa, SigFox, eMTC, NB-IoT for long-distance communication technology. Low-power wide area network (LPWAN) standard has become the designated mobile communication standard to meet the requirements of low power consumption, long distance and low bandwidth in Internet of Things applications, among which LoRa, SigFox and eMTC and NB-IoT with licensed spectrum have gradually emerged.

5G is expected to unify standards and promote the faster development of the Internet of Things. Unauthorized spectrum technology (LoRa, SigFox) can only be used in a small area due to the limitation of spectrum sharing. Authorized spectrum technologies (NB-IoT and eMTC) have already had the scale effect with the gradual deployment in the world. As of September 2019, at least 114 operators in 57 countries have deployed NB-IoT or eMTC, and 153 operators in 72 countries are actively investing in NB-IoT networks. In July 2019, 3GPP formally submitted the proposal of 5G candidate technical standards to ITU-R (International Telecommunication Union), and NB-IoT became the technical standard to meet the needs of 5G large-scale machine connection (mMTC) scenarios.

Figure 29: NB-IOT and eMTC network deployment

Source: GSA, China Merchants Bank Research Institute

Figure 30: Prediction of the number and scale of global Internet of Things terminals

Source: Ericsson and China Merchants Bank Research Institute.

High Growth Opportunity of Internet of Things Terminal Market

The global Internet of Things terminal market is expected to maintain rapid growth. IDC predicts that the global Internet of Things expenditure will reach $745 billion in 2019 and $1.1 trillion in 2023. Ericsson predicts that in 2025, the global Internet of Things terminal scale will reach 24.9 billion, among which short-range IoT devices (Wi-Fi, Bluetooth and Zigbee) will reach 19.5 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 13%; Wide-area IoT devices (2G, 3G, 4G, 5G, NB-IoT, eMTC, Sigfox and LoRa) reached 5.4 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 24%. In 2025, among the wide-area IoT devices, NB-IoT and eMTC devices are the 5G mainstream IOT terminals, accounting for 52%; 4G and 5G large bandwidth IoT terminals accounted for 28%. In the long run, the market size of IOT terminals far exceeds that of smart phones.

Figure 31: Prediction of the number and scale of terminals in the global wide-area Internet of Things

Source: Ericsson and China Merchants Bank Research Institute.

Figure 32: Distribution of NB-IoT New Products in China in 2019Q1

Source: Institute of ICT, China Merchants Bank Research Institute.

China’s Internet of Things terminal market is growing rapidly. By the end of 2018, the Internet of Things connection terminals of China’s three major operators had exceeded 760 million, of which China Mobile’s Internet of Things connection scale reached 551 million. The existing IOT terminals still mainly use 2G/3G/4G networks, and the proportion of NB-IoT/eMTC terminals is still small. Under the impetus of 3GPP, NB-IoT is included in the 5G standard, which ensures the smooth upgrade of operators NB-IoT to 5G network and is conducive to the rapid promotion of NB-IoT terminals. China’s NB-IoT terminals have been widely deployed, and have developed rapidly in the application fields of smart home, smart city, intelligent production and intelligent logistics. According to the statistics of China ICT Institute, in the first quarter of 2019, 58 new NB-IoT terminal products were listed. Since 2018, the number of NB-IoT terminals has accumulated to 180. From the product form, it covers smart meters, smart door locks, flammable gas alarms, locators, and general modules/modules that can be widely used in the field of Internet of Things.

In the short term, the smart home terminal market is the largest. According to Strategy Analytics, the total expenditure of global smart home market (equipment, system and service consumption) will be close to $96 billion in 2018, with a compound annual growth rate of 10% in the next five years (2018-2023), and the global smart home market will reach $155 billion by 2023. The North American market is dominated by Amazon, Google and Samsung; There are British companies Centrica Connected Homes’Hive and Deutsche Telekom’s Magenta Home, German eQ-3 and Dutch Enco’Toon； in the European market. In the Asia-Pacific region, there are Xiaomi in China, LG in South Korea, iTSCOM and Panasonic in Japan. The smart home market is still highly fragmented and has great growth opportunities.

Figure 33: Global Smart Home Market Scale

Source: Strategy Analytics and China Merchants Bank Research Institute.

Figure 34: China Internet of Things Market Growth Forecast (2017-2022)

Source: IDC, China Merchants Bank Research Institute

In the medium term, the car networking terminal market has the highest growth rate. Gartner predicts that by 2023, the automotive industry will become the largest market for 5G IoT solutions, accounting for 53% of 5G IoT terminals. IDC predicts that among the mainstream application scenarios in China in the next five years, the car networking scenario will grow fastest. From the overall situation of the domestic vehicle terminal market, in Q1 of 2019, 37 new products of vehicle terminals were listed, including 6 2G terminals, 1 3G terminal, 29 4G terminals and 1 NB-IoT terminal. From the application field, the current vehicle-mounted mobile terminal products include not only general equipment for cars, buses and trucks, but also special terminals for certain models, such as Beidou compatible terminals for logistics vehicles. From the product form, it includes not only intelligent rearview mirrors and vehicle-mounted robots with high integration, but also driving recorders, vehicle navigation and ETC intelligent terminals focusing on specific functions. With the advancement of the Internet of Vehicles, consumers have higher and higher requirements for the intelligence of vehicle-mounted mobile terminals, and more and more vehicle-mounted mobile terminals are equipped with intelligent operating systems such as Android. In Q1, 2019, there were 14 new smart car mobile terminals equipped with operating systems, accounting for 37.8% of the newly listed models in the same period.

Figure 35: Distribution of new products on the market of domestic vehicle terminals in Q1, 2019.

Source: Institute of ICT, China Merchants Bank Research Institute.

Figure 36: Industrial Internet of Things Application Scenario

Source: PTC, China Merchants Bank Research Institute

In the long run, the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) will become the largest market for the 5G Internet of Things. GSMA mobile think tank predicts that by 2025, the number of smart manufacturing connections in the Asia-Pacific region will reach more than 530 million. According to the survey data of industrial Internet of Things software platform PTC on its customers, the leading industry in deploying industrial Internet of Things solutions is industry (25%), followed by electronics and high technology (23%) and automobile industry (13%). Specific application scenarios include manufacturing/operation, service, product design and IT. The most important application scenario is the formation of manufacturing operation information and operational asset monitoring by using the Internet of Things. These intelligent industrial connection functions can help product manufacturers improve their output and production quality, and reduce manufacturing costs.

4.5G industry cloud has a long-term development prospect in the vertical field.

From the perspective of application scenarios, 5G promotes the integration of cloud network services, and gradually evolves from a cloud platform providing virtualized basic resources to an industry cloud applied in typical industries, which not only drives the rapid growth of data centers, but also deeply integrates in real economic fields such as education, security, energy and industry, creating new kinetic energy for economic development.

Figure 37: Global Cloud Computing Market Size and Growth Forecast

Source: Gartner, China Merchants Bank Research Institute.

Figure 38: Global IaaS Public Cloud Market Share

Source: Gartner, China Merchants Bank Research Institute.

4.1 Cloud network convergence promotes the rapid development of cloud computing industry

The global cloud computing market continues to grow steadily. In 2018, the global public cloud market reached US$ 136.3 billion, with a growth rate of 23%. It is estimated that in 2022, the global public cloud market will reach US$ 270 billion, in which the compound annual growth rate of IaaS is over 26%, that of PaaS is over 20%, and that of SaaS is over 14%. The global market concentration trend is obvious. From the perspective of IaaS revenue in 2018, the top three occupy 70% of the global market share. Among them, Amazon AWS still occupies the first place, with a market share of 51.8% and a growth rate of 26.8%; Microsoft Azure followed closely, with a market share of 15.5% and a growth rate of 61%; Alibaba Cloud ranks third with a market share of 7.7%, with a growth rate of 93%.

The growth rate of China’s cloud computing market is higher than the global level, and the public cloud market is growing faster than the private cloud market. In 2018, the overall market size of cloud computing in China reached 96.28 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 39.2% higher than the global level. Among them, the size of the public cloud market reached 43.7 billion yuan, up 65% year-on-year; The scale of the private cloud market reached 52.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23%. From the public cloud IaaS, Alibaba Cloud, Tianyiyun and Tencent Cloud occupy the top three; From the public cloud PaaS, Alibaba Cloud, Tencent Cloud and Baidu Cloud occupy the top three; From the perspective of public cloud SaaS, UFIDA, Kingdee and Changjietong occupy the top three. According to the prediction of World Information, an ICT research consultancy, in 2018, the cloud access rate of enterprises in China will be around 30%, while that of enterprises in the United States will be around 80%. There is still a lot of room for growth in the cloud computing market in China in the future.

Figure 39: Market Size and Forecast of Public Cloud in China

Source: Institute of ICT, China Merchants Bank Research Institute.

Figure 40: China Private Cloud Market Scale and Forecast

The rapid growth of cloud computing promotes the continuous growth of data centers. Due to the rapid development of cloud computing, search, social networking, e-commerce and payment services, the global demand for data centers is growing day by day, and the ultra-large-scale data centers continue to grow rapidly. According to the Cisco Global Cloud Index CGCI, from the end of 2016 to 2021, the number of very large-scale data centers in the world will increase from 338 to 628; The global annual data center traffic will increase from 6.8ZB to 20.6ZB, with a compound annual growth rate of 25%. The continuous growth of Internet traffic has promoted the continuous expansion of data centers. In 2018, the market size of IDC in China reached 122.8 billion yuan, and it will reach 275.9 billion yuan in 2021, maintaining a growth rate of about 30%.

4G services promote the high growth of data center traffic. There is a positive correlation between the growth of network traffic of operators and the growth of data traffic in data centers. The traffic of 4G, private line and broadband services in the operator’s network comes from the content server in the data center. The outbreak of Internet services and the acceleration of operators’ pipelines can effectively increase the traffic demand of data centers. As of October 2019, the scale of 4G users of three operators in China reached 1.269 billion, and the average mobile Internet access traffic (DOU) reached 8.54GB in that month, with an increase rate of 85.6% year-on-year. The demand for data centers increased rapidly with the synchronization of 4G services.

Figure 41: China IDC market size forecast

Source: China IDC Circle, China Merchants Bank Research Institute.

Figure 42: 4G services drive data center traffic growth

Source: China Merchants Bank Research Institute

4.2 5G industry cloud has long-term investment opportunities.

5G promotes the rapid development of data centers.

Figure 43: DoU trend of 4G/5G users in South Korea

Source: Zdnet, China Merchants Bank Research Institute

Figure 44: DoU trend forecast of China Mobile’s 4G/5G users.

Source: China Mobile and China Merchants Bank Research Institute.

5G effectively enhances DoU, which will drive the data center to maintain rapid growth in the next three years. The growth rate of monthly Internet traffic (DoU) of operators directly reflects the growth rate of data center traffic. According to the statistics of Korea Ministry of Science and Information, in Q2 of 2019, South Korea’s 5G DOU was 24GB, while 4GDoU was 9.5GB, and 5G DoU was three times that of 4GDou. According to the forecast of China Mobile, the 5G DoU will be 19.6GB in 2019 and 37.8G in 2022, with a compound annual growth rate of 25%. With the gradual promotion of 5G, 5G DoU is three times that of 4G Dou, which will drive the data center to maintain rapid development in the next three years.

5G solves network bottleneck, and cloud games meet development opportunities.

The characteristics of large bandwidth and low latency of 5G solve the bottleneck of the development of cloud games. Cloud games are based on cloud computing technology. The data processing of the games is not run locally, and there is no need to download the games. All the games are run in the cloud, and the server in the cloud will transmit the game images to the user terminal through the network after data compression. Cloud games greatly reduce the configuration requirements for user terminals. User terminals do not need to use any high-end hardware configuration, but only need to meet the simple video streaming media processing ability, and are responsible for sending operation instructions and accepting returned video information. The advantages of low threshold, multi-device synchronization and immediacy of cloud games also bring corresponding demands. Cloud games need more network bandwidth and lower network delay than traditional games, and network bottleneck has become one of the main factors for poor user experience of cloud games. With the arrival of 5G, the large bandwidth and low latency of 5G can bring users a high-quality cloud game service experience.

The cloud game market has great potential for long-term development. IHS Markit predicts that by the end of 2019, the market size of cloud games will exceed 500 million dollars for the first time, and by the end of 2023, the market size of cloud games will reach 2.5 billion dollars. Market research company Niko predicts that China will become the world’s largest cloud game market in 2023, when the revenue of China’s cloud game market will exceed 1.1 billion US dollars.

Industry giants have entered one after another, and cloud games and social interaction are deeply integrated. In November 2019, Google officially launched the cloud game platform Stadia, which supports smart terminals such as laptops, tablets, mobile phones and TV boxes, and the screen can be seamlessly switched. Google has brought many new ways to play, which can share the video and screenshots of the game to the video website with one click, and the content of the video and trailer of the game will provide the entrance to the game, so as to realize instant play. Players can share their own game progress through the connection, and other players can join in the cooperative game at any time; The anchor can invite the audience to participate in the game and interact at any time when the game is broadcast live. Tencent cloud game platform WeGame was launched in August 2019, and Netease cloud game platform has also been launched, includingOther small manufacturers, such as Red Finger Cloud Mobile Phone and Hai Mayun, have also actively launched cloud game services.

Cloud game ecology is diversified, and new business models are constantly emerging. Domestic cloud game business models mainly include virtual mobile phone rental, game joint operation and playable game advertisements. The virtual mobile phone rental mode is the main mode in the To C market. Users can hang up in the cloud to brush their experience and resources by purchasing virtual mobile phones with different configurations. Joint operation mode with game manufacturers, similar to Apple App Store, cloud game platform can be jointly operated with multiple game manufacturers to help game manufacturers bring new user traffic. The playable game advertising mode breaks through the traditional static and video game advertising mode, and the advertising window is the game entrance, which is helpful to directly improve the user’s advertising conversion rate.

Cloud games directly drive the growth of cloud computing resources. Cloud games bring customers a perfect experience, and put a lot of game data processing and picture rendering in the cloud. Cloud games directly drive the growth of demand for cloud computing and data center resources, and the growth of demand for servers, storage, network equipment and chips that meet high-quality image processing. The combination of cloud games with smart hardware such as mobile phones, PADs, PCs, AR/VR, TVs, etc. may become the killer application of To C services in the 5G era.

5G promotes new opportunities in new areas of security

The three characteristics of 5G bring more security application scenarios. In the next few years, the demand for security technology products at home and abroad will maintain a steady growth trend, with strong security demand in many industries such as cities, transportation, education, medicine, environment and finance. In 2018, the market size of video surveillance equipment in China was US$ 10.63 billion. IDC predicts that by 2023, the market size of video surveillance equipment in China will reach $20.13 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.6%. With the arrival of 5G, the three characteristics of large bandwidth, large connection and low delay bring more cloud security application scenarios, realizing new requirements such as high-definition monitoring, AR glasses/helmet inspection, drone inspection, material monitoring, fire alarm monitoring and emergency command.

Cloud network cooperates to meet the diversified needs of security services. Cloud security platform can not only reduce the implementation cost of security projects and improve the deployment efficiency of security business, but also realize the linkage between security business and other social public departments and improve the efficiency of social operation. The combination of cloud AI deep learning based on GPU and FPGA and the AI computing power of edge cameras greatly improves the ability to analyze and identify people, cars and things. After computer vision processing and deep learning, the ability of target classification and attribute recognition can be easily realized. In the future, security terminal equipment can realize full video feature structure through AI chip, and then transmit feature information to edge cloud and central cloud through 5G network, and the cloud can maximize efficiency through intelligent analysis. The diversification of cloud security application scenarios has led to new development opportunities for cloud computing in the security field.

Figure 47: China Video Surveillance Market Scale Forecast

Source: IDC, China Merchants Bank Research Institute

Figure 48: 5G Intelligent Security Solution

Source: China Merchants Bank Research Institute

5G accelerates the cloudization of industrial manufacturing and realizes digital transformation

5G Industrial Internet unleashes unlimited potential for manufacturing. Industrial Internet has promoted the formation of a brand-new industrial manufacturing and service system through the comprehensive interconnection of people, machines and things, and is an important cornerstone of the fourth industrial revolution. Industrial Internet provides a key support for the digitalization, networking and intelligent upgrading of manufacturing industry, which is conducive to the birth of new models and new formats, and promotes the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries and the cultivation and growth of new kinetic energy. At present, China’s manufacturing industry is still at a low level, limited by the low level of automation, insufficient level of informatization, unresolved problems of networking and real-time data transmission, and the industrial Internet is still in its infancy. 5G’s ultra-large bandwidth, ultra-large connection and ultra-low latency make it possible for the industrial Internet to make great strides.

Cloudization of industrial manufacturing brings long-term investment opportunities. According to the analysis of ICT Institute, at this stage, China’s manufacturing enterprises mainly focus on the cloudization of simulation design, business system and industrial Internet of Things. In the simulation design, such as automobile, heavy industry, complex electrical appliance manufacturing enterprises, through high-performance computing on the cloud, simulate the real environment, and carry out multi-scene design analysis. The business system provides flexible resource allocation for business systems such as manufacturing, finance, sales, inventory, procurement and service through the cloud platform, which improves efficiency and saves a lot of costs. Industrial Internet of Things collects, analyzes and manages data through tens of thousands of terminals in the cloud. Industrial intelligent manufacturing goes to the cloud, which promotes China’s development from a manufacturing power to a manufacturing power, and also brings broad business opportunities for cloud computing.

Figure 49: Cloudization of industrial manufacturing

As the saying goes, people, as the name implies, should be the car as the name implies when it comes to the automobile market! As one of the few German brands, its position in the domestic market is not generally stable, both in quality and economy are very close to the people, especially under the influence of today’s price reduction frenzy, Volkswagen really spares no effort to reduce prices! For example, the following medium-sized car, the highest price reduction is as high as 78 thousand, this car is Volkswagen’s.

Because the price is close to the people, Volkswagen has always been very popular, and it is also the medium-sized company with the highest sales volume. Its annual sales volume has reached more than 170,000 units, and its monthly sales volume can be maintained at more than 15,000 units. This data is second only to the whole medium-sized market. Even if the insurance rate is only 58.2%, and even the number of failures per 100 vehicles is as high as 262, there are still many people who are willing to start this car, just because the cost performance of this car is really not generally high. The 13 cars on sale, excluding the upcoming new cars, are directly priced between 187,000 and 261,000 by manufacturers, and the terminal discount of up to 78,000 has made many people see hope. After all, the entry price of Tiguan L has directly dropped to less than 140,000.

Such a starting price in the joint venture market may only be able to start with a compact beggar version of the car, you know, even after various concessions, the starting price is 146 thousand! It shows that Tiguan L is cost-effective. Even the top-of-the-line Tiguan L is only 217,000, which is lower than the top-of-the-line CR-V. Therefore, even though Tiguan L may have some minor problems in quality, the price close to the people is enough to make everyone feel excited, so it is very worthwhile to rush into the medium-sized space. What’s more, Tiguan L is an obvious short board in the interior, and its performance in other aspects is remarkable. For example, its appearance, calm atmosphere, is a style that men love.

The design of the front face is simple and generous, and the side shows the sense of movement of the car body. The design of the lines also follows a round and full style, and the shape of the tail is heavy and solid, which are all styles that men like. However, it doesn’t feel very suitable with 17-inch wheels, but it is more comfortable with 18-inch or above wheels. What’s more, Tiguan L chose wheels with a little larger flatness ratio, and the main one was a durable one. Although Tiguan L is medium-sized, its body length is not very long, only 4735mm, which is a bit unsightly, but people have a width of 1.86 meters and a height of 1.68m, and the wheelbase is 2791mm, which is nearly 2.8, but it has provided a lot of contribution to the space.

However, because it is divided into five-seat and seven-seat layouts, the spatial performance is also different. There is no need to say that even a person who is 1.8 meters tall has a lot of room to move in, but if it is replaced by a seven-seat layout, the space of the second row of seats is also good, and the length of the second row of seats is enough to provide sufficient support for the legs. But the third row is very cramped, so it is still used for emergency! Moreover, the rear seat supports reclining, so the storage space will be very large, and the maximum volume can reach about 1800L. It is no problem to put down two people. Those who want to go out to go on road trip can rest assured to start with this car. However, compared with the space and appearance, the interior of Tiguan L is a bit unsatisfactory.

Its overall interior style is still a familiar formula. The pure black interior is very calm, but it also loses its sense of fashion. The 12-inch central control panel is equipped with complete functions, such as car phone or voice recognition, but the car system may not be smooth enough, and occasionally there will be some jams or connection errors. There is also a good performance in the configuration. Six airbags are standard, and full-speed adaptive cruise is also standard, like auxiliary images. Many common configurations are worthy of the price of this car even if they fail to meet the standard. In terms of motivation, Tiguan L is also confident.

Although the starting point is only 1.5T, it has 160 horsepower, while the 2.0T displacement has 186 and 220 horsepower. Three different powers can easily meet everyone’s daily needs. The gearbox is a general-purpose 7-speed wet dual-clutch gearbox. Although it often causes some setbacks or a little slow start, there is no way to save fuel. Even so, the fuel consumption of Tiguan L is not low, and it is about 6.6L when starting, and it is still 95 # oil. If it actually runs, the fuel consumption will be at least 8, which is acceptable for a medium-sized car. After all, Tiguan L only has a curb weight of 1.7 tons, so it is more fuel-efficient.

It can be said that this Tiguan L is a car with obvious advantages and disadvantages. In addition to the simple interior, it is not very good at sound insulation, and the tire noise and wind noise are a bit big. So is this Tiguan L an ideal model for everyone? Ok, this Volkswagen Tiguan L is introduced here first. Welcome to leave a message. See you next time. Bye!

(The picture is from the Internet. If there is any infringement, please contact to delete it.)

　　During the Spring Festival this year, foreign leaders who pay New Year greetings to China people feel very special.

　　Many people choose New Year’s Eve. For example, Japanese Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide, Australian Prime Minister Morrison, British Prime Minister Johnson, UN Secretary-General Gutierrez, and so on.

　　Many leaders talk about their feelings around the Year of the Ox.

　　Morrison felt that the cow is a member of teamwork. It is calm, earnest and diligent, which is the quality needed in any period, especially in our period. "These qualities will be the pillars for people to survive in 2021."

　　British Prime Minister Johnson, in a video greeting, said: "I hope all of us can cheer up in the Year of the Ox, just like the strength and determination shown by this strong animal, go forward and make a difference."

　　The climax is New Year’s Eve, but the first day of the New Year’s Eve is also very important. The new American President Biden personally paid a New Year’s greeting.

　　Although Biden pays New Year greetings to all people who celebrate the Lunar New Year for political correctness, mainly to Asian Americans, culture transcends national boundaries, which is widely regarded as a gesture towards China.

　　Counting, this is also Biden’s first New Year greeting as president.

　　Diplomacy is no small matter, a few interesting details.

　　Detail one, special time.

　　Biden chose New Year’s Day.

　　In fact, on the phone with China leaders on New Year’s Eve, according to Xinhua News Agency, "Biden paid a New Year call to the people of China and wished the people of China a happy and prosperous Spring Festival."

　　This reminds me that four years ago, after Trump came to power, he paid a New Year call for the first time and dragged it to the twelfth day of the first month.

　　Also, Trump, who likes to tweet the most, seems to have not mentioned it on Twitter for the first time. In the words of a friend, Trump tweeted that it was true love … …

　　At this point, Biden was very generous. On the New Year’s Eve, he called to pay a New Year’s call. On the first day of the New Year’s Eve, Mrs. La recorded a New Year’s video together, and several social accounts were released to the public at the first time.

　　A leader’s demeanor, self-cultivation, and respect or disrespect are sometimes really in these details.

　　Detail 2, Chinese style background.

　　If you watch the video carefully, Biden should have put a little thought into it.

　　I can’t see clearly if the chair I’m sitting in is Chinese. But the red cushion behind him and his wife, look at the pattern, it looks like Chinese style.

　　Moreover, the whole background is big red.

　　Behind the first lady Jill, there is also a blue and white porcelain.

　　This is definitely not a random arrangement.

　　Biden and his wife are not talking loudly, but they are very emotional. For example, Jill said at the beginning:

　　This is a time to celebrate, remember happiness and sadness, and look forward to the future. Just like lanterns, we let our hopes light up the road ahead. For so many Americans, we have never needed a new beginning so much.

　　Mentioned the lanterns in China festivals.

　　Indeed, lanterns illuminate our way forward.

　　At this moment, Americans really need a little celebration!

　　Detail 3, secretly approve Trump.

　　Biden should have a lot to say after taking over a mess.

　　Especially for Asian Americans, and then his wife Jill’s words, Biden said with emotion:

　　In addition to the suffering of the epidemic and the loss of life and livelihood, we also see another kind of tragedy: racism, harassment and hatred. This is totally wrong against Asian Americans and Pacific islanders, and it is a stain on our national character.

　　Who is this aimed at?

　　Needless to say.

　　You know, in the past year, from Trump to Pompeo, some American politicians kept their mouths shut, which was the "X virus" and "Kung Fu flu". This obviously racist behavior aggravated the anger and panic of Asian Americans.

　　On the eve of the Lunar New Year, a 91-year-old Chinese man was deliberately pushed down in the street, so that Daniel Wu was angry and offered a reward of 25,000 US dollars (about 160,000 yuan) to find the murderer.

　　This kind of America has surprised the world!

　　Therefore, Biden said: This is why I signed an executive order condemning racism and xenophobia … …

　　Biden wants to set things right. I’m not targeting Trump, I’m targeting Trump’s racism.

　　Detail four, talking about cattle.

　　How can you not talk about cows in the Year of the Ox?

　　The first lady really talked about cows, and she said this:

　　The Year of the Ox reminds us to be resilient and persistent. We have seen again and again from the Asian-American and Pacific Islander communities that all front-line workers have the courage to ensure our safety regardless of their own health, and they generously devote their time and talents to helping neighbors in need … …

　　Toughness and perseverance.

　　China’s Year of the Ox has made the world feel different.

　　Especially in the current emergency, we should continue to be resilient, persevering and tide over the difficulties together.

　　On the most harmonious and festive festival of China people, Biden sent a very unusual signal when he came to pay a New Year call in person.

　　That is the emphasis on Asian Americans, the emphasis on racial equality, and the respect for China and Chinese culture.

　　Political things are too sensitive, so I won’t say much today.

　　At least on the cultural level, Biden is really unusual. As a veteran politician, he is trying to repair the image of the United States and restore its soft power with his soft body.

　　This kind of power is not comparable to Trump’s foolhardiness, which we need to attach great importance to.

　　This world respects its opponents, never belittles itself, but makes others respect themselves.

　　Therefore, after Biden released the New Year video, it was almost unanimously praised. A message wrote like this:

　　Thank you, Mr. President. I’m so glad to hear that from the White House. In the past four years, what we have heard from the White House is all insults and stupid nicknames. Instead, the White House is encouraging fear, anger, hatred, tearing and xenophobia … …

　　Finally, I have to feel that this Spring Festival is special and the whole world is still suffering. Therefore, as Mr. and Mrs. Biden said, there is a special need for joy and a fresh start is more urgent than ever.

　　Therefore, more and more people celebrate the Spring Festival in China and like the profound connotation of China culture.

　　As I said yesterday, the real strength of China should be that one day, our Spring Festival will become a worldwide festival.

　　Chinese people celebrate, not Chinese people also celebrate.

　　This year’s Spring Festival is a new starting point, and almost all the world’s politicians have come to celebrate. Biden and Johnson recorded a New Year video, and Suga Yoshihide and Macron sent New Year greetings.

　　UN Secretary-General Gutierrez also said with emotion, "Cows symbolize energy, strength and courage, and these qualities are exactly what the world needs today."

　　Isn’t this the spirit of three cows?

　　Serve the people, innovate and develop pioneering cattle, and work hard for the old ox!

　　Therefore, culture transcends national boundaries.

　　The more national this world is, the more cosmopolitan it is; The more confident you are, the more open you are.

　　The Year of the Ox in China is also the Year of the Ox in the world.

　　The Year of the Ox is bound to be a great success!

Xinhua News Agency, Shanghai, March 22nd Question: The 4S shop has received the notice of price reduction, but it is still not easy to "pick up the car immediately at the bare car price"-the high-end car brand has lowered the "guide price" to track down.

Xinhua News Agency reporters Zhou Rui and Wang He

There is still a period of time before the VAT rate of manufacturing and other industries is lowered on April 1. High-end automobile brands such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi and Jaguar Land Rover have recently announced the reduction of the "official guidance price". Behind the price reduction is the road to the transformation of China’s automobile market, where everything is easy to sell, and consumers are concerned about how much the terminal price can be reduced. The reporter’s investigation found that at present, the 4S shop has received the notice of price reduction, but it is still not easy to "pick up the car immediately at the bare car price".

High-end brands have lowered the "official guidance price", and some models have been lowered by about 80,000 yuan.

After the China Municipal Government announced that the value-added tax rate of manufacturing industries would be reduced to 13% from April 1st, in the past week, high-end automobile brands such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi, Jaguar Land Rover, Volvo and Lincoln announced in advance that they would lower the "official guide price". In addition, after Tesla announced the price reduction across the board, the China automobile market ushered in a new round of "price reduction tide", and the "official guide price" of some models was lowered by about 80,000 yuan.

Mercedes-Benz announced that it would reduce the suggested retail prices of all Mercedes-Benz and smart models sold in Chinese mainland from 16th, with the highest drop of 64,000 yuan for Mercedes -AMG models.

Volvo announced that it would reduce the suggested retail price of all models sold in China from now on, among which the luxury SUV XC90 had the highest drop of 60,000 yuan.

Jaguar Land Rover also announced that it would lower the price of all models sold in China, with Jaguar brand models dropping by up to 42,000 yuan and Land Rover brand models dropping by up to 85,000 yuan.

This is the third wave of "price reduction" in China auto market since May last year. In May 2018, the value-added tax rate of manufacturing and other industries was lowered from 17% to 16%; From July 2018, the tariffs on automobiles with tax rates of 25% and 20% respectively will be reduced to 15%. Many car companies announced price cuts in advance when the state announced the tax adjustment policy.

Behind the price reduction, the China auto market, which is striding forward all the way, is facing new challenges. In the context of slowing economic growth, China’s automobile production in 2018 was 27.8092 million, down 4.16% year-on-year; The sales volume was 28.0806 million units, down 2.76% year-on-year.

The pressure felt by high-end brand car companies is more obvious. "The main force of this’ price reduction tide’ is high-end brands. An important reason is that its profit margin is high and there is room for profit." Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Association, said.

The "official guide price" has been transmitted to the terminal, but there is still a game between consumers and 4S stores.

How much do consumers benefit from the price reduction announced by automobile manufacturers? The reporter found that the "official guide price" has been transmitted to the terminal market, but under the current sales pattern of the automobile market, it is not easy for consumers to realize the "naked car price to pick up the car immediately".

For example, the sales staff of 4S shops of many high-end car brands in Shanghai said that they had received the price reduction notice from the manufacturers and could refer to it. At the same time, however, some salespeople also said that considering that the models and colors selected by reporters are very scarce in stock, it is likely that they need to make reservations with manufacturers, and the waiting period is relatively long, so it is recommended to choose consumer loans or change options.

"There will be a game between consumers and 4S stores. After the’ official guide price’ is lowered, the actual purchase price of these brands will drop, but there may be some comprehensive costs." Cui Dongshu said.

Despite this, the insiders admit that with the overall cooling of the auto market, the strength of high-end auto brands has eased a lot, and the market is becoming healthier. Cui Dongshu said: "The move of car companies to downgrade is the profit-making gesture taken by enterprises."

Waiting in line without raising the price, "recommending" luxury interior decoration, and waiting for "naked lifting" explosive models for months … Once, the hot auto market forced consumers to accept all kinds of "hidden rules" of 4S stores, especially some high-end brands. However, with China’s auto market, especially passenger car market, bidding farewell to high growth, and parallel imported cars gaining more consumers’ recognition, the phenomenon of "store bullying customers" mentioned above is gradually decreasing, and the survival way of 4S stores is changing from pre-sales to after-sales service.

China auto market will be greener, farther and know you better.

In the current market environment, high-end car brands play the price card, and the survival pressure of small and medium-sized brand car companies will be even greater. Insiders pointed out that from the perspective of the whole industry, China’s automobile industry has reached a "crossroads", and car companies should not only pay attention to the price, but also pay attention to the upgrading of product structure and the development of emerging markets.

Miao Wei, Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, previously pointed out that automobile production and sales declined in 2018. Externally, there were factors such as limited purchases and restrictions; Internally, enterprises are not fast enough in adjusting structure and changing development mode. Automobile enterprises should adhere to the supply-side structural reform as the main line and accelerate the adjustment of product structure; At the same time, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will actively work with relevant departments to speed up the research and introduction of policies to promote rural automobile consumption and accelerate the promotion and application of new energy vehicles.

According to the data, despite the downturn in China’s automobile market, new energy vehicles are still developing at a high speed, and the construction of "green efficiency" charging stations, which once hampered new energy vehicles, is also in full swing. According to the data, as of February this year, the number of public charging piles in China has reached 348,000.

Many car companies in China are asking for power from the Internet to bring consumers the experience of the next generation of cars. I can read your emotions and interact with you, and even make different responses according to the needs of different passengers in the front and rear seats-the Weilai ES8 model loaded with the artificial intelligence system NOMI is welcomed by the market. Weilai Automobile’s latest financial report shows that in 2018, the total output of ES8 models reached 12,775 and 11,348 vehicles were delivered. Internet car-making has moved from concept to residents’ life.

There are also some auto companies in China that are actively participating in global competition. From a single product trade, it has gradually changed to an overseas industrial layout where technology, talents and capital are exported together. According to the data of the Ministry of Commerce, at present, 23 backbone automobile enterprises in China have established more than 90 factories overseas, with a production capacity of more than 1 million vehicles.

　　Shanghai multi-department third to drop (Shanghai) company to carry out safety special project inspection.

　　On the afternoon of September 21, the Shanghai Municipal Transportation Commission Law Enforcement Corps, the Shanghai Urban Transportation Management Office, the Shanghai Public Security Bureau Traffic Police Corps, and the Shanghai Public Security Bureau Network Security Corps jointly carried out a special project inspection on Didi (Shanghai) Company, requiring Didi Company to earnestly fulfill its main responsibility for safety, and further implement relevant rectification work in accordance with the spirit of the "9.11 Joint Inspection" rectification requirements notice.

　　According to the Shanghai Traffic Law Enforcement Corps, on the evening of September 14, Didi (Shanghai) sent the materials required in the "9.11 Joint Inspection" rectification request notice to the Municipal Traffic Commission Law Enforcement Corps.The materials submitted are all paper materials without summary statistics, serial numbers, and page numbers (the total number of reports cannot be counted, there are no non-Shanghai personnel and vehicle inventories, and there are no people and vehicle inventories who have obtained the city’s online car-hailing qualifications), nor have they submitted a specific "rectification plan".

　　The materials reported by Didi are paper materials without summary statistics, no serial number, and no page number. The pictures in this article are all pictures of He Yinghan, a reporter from The Paper

　　From September 16th to 17th, the inspection team randomly selected "online car-hailing vehicle and driver information" and "active vehicle and driver information" from the inspected materials, and compared them with the Shanghai online car-hailing monitoring platform (hereinafter referred to as the "supervision platform").Of the 95 pieces of information randomly selected, only 27 were completely consistent with the information queried by the regulatory platform, and 68 were found to be inconsistent.

　　1. Of the total and active information provided by the company, most of the driver and vehicle information is not available on the supervision platform.

　　2. Among the active information provided by the company, some drivers and vehicles cannot find the order information in the supervision platform.

　　This time, on September 21, the management department again requested Didi (Shanghai) to provide the following materials to the Joint Inspection Unit in the notice of delivery:

　　1. Verify and remove the suspected 13,000 "vests", and provide the electronic version of the detailed list after comparison (including the driver’s license of the registered person and the attachment of the vehicle’s driving license).

　　2. Provide the electronic version of the platform’s full data and the number and inventory of illegal online car-hailing vehicles and drivers that have been cleaned up.

　　3. Provide a specific "rectification plan" for the problems existing in the operation and management of the platform.

　　The notice also requires Didi (Shanghai) Company to strictly implement the management requirements of prohibiting unqualified vehicles and drivers from passing the review and registration after September 11, 2018, and to immediately clear the personnel and vehicles that have been investigated and punished by law enforcement departments for illegal passenger transportation on the Internet, and establish a corresponding long-term control mechanism.

　　The relevant person in charge of Didi (Shanghai) company once again promised that the work of full access to data will be completed in the near future. Since September 10, Shanghai has been cleaning up non-compliant drivers in batches. The cleaned drivers are involved in the failure of the three-certificate verification, the background check does not meet the relevant conditions, and the people and vehicles do not match the complaints. As of now, the number of cleanup is nearly 12,000.

　　"It can be said that the current rectification work of Didi is not in place, it is not accurate, and the degree of cooperation between enterprises needs to be improved. According to the relevant requirements of the Ministry of Transport, if an enterprise refuses to make corrections, it may request the relevant departments to take measures such as suspending the release, removing mobile Internet applications (APPs) from the shelves, stopping internet services, stopping networking or shutting down for rectification," said Wang Xufeng, head of the legal department of the Shanghai Municipal Transportation Commission Law Enforcement Corps.

　　In the next step, the inspection team will send the sampling comparison, recent investigation and handling cases, street investigation and handling personnel, vehicles and suspected vehicles of vests to Didi Chuxing Shanghai Branch in writing, and ask them to make further comparison and verification and issue a written explanation. For non-compliance, it will be implemented within a time limit for rectification.

　　From the afternoon of September 7th, the Shanghai Municipal Transportation Commission Law Enforcement Corps, the Shanghai Public Security Bureau Traffic Police Corps, and the Shanghai Public Security Bureau Network Security Corps jointly entered Didi (Shanghai) Company to carry out safety special project inspections.

　　On the afternoon of September 11, the Shanghai Municipal Transportation Commission Law Enforcement Corps, the Shanghai Public Security Bureau Traffic Police Corps, and the Shanghai Urban Transportation Management Department once again jointly carried out a special project inspection of Didi (Shanghai) Company.

　　On the 11th, the Shanghai Municipal Transportation Commission Law Enforcement Corps and the Municipal Transportation Management Office jointly issued a notice, requiring Didi to submit written materials to the Joint Inspection Team before September 14, 2018, including: the list of registered vehicles and drivers on the platform in Shanghai, the cleaning up of illegal vehicles and drivers on the platform in Shanghai, the mechanism of sending orders and generating tariffs on the platform in Shanghai, the uploading of full data and real-time data on the platform in Shanghai, and the implementation of passenger safety measures on the platform in Shanghai.

　　At the same time, according to the rectification requirements, Didi shall submit the specific work schedule of five rectification items to the Joint Inspection Unit before September 17, 2018, including: the implementation of the cleaning of vehicles with empty plates registered on the platform in Shanghai within the time limit; the implementation of the cleaning of non-registered vehicles and non-registered drivers on the platform in Shanghai within the time limit; the implementation of the full real-time upload of platform data in Shanghai within the time limit; the implementation of platform passenger safety measures in Shanghai within the time limit; and the prohibition of non-compliant vehicles and drivers from registering on the platform in Shanghai. (Surging News reporter, He Yinghan)

　　　 "Andy Lau’s Unforgettable World Tour" came to the 80,000-person stadium in Shanghai; nearly 80,000 enthusiastic fans not only paralyzed Shanghai’s traffic, but also caused long queues in surrounding restaurants and shops to multiply. The last concert in Ningbo on May 4 forced some companies near the stadium to leave work early to avoid traffic congestion, which became an exception for employees to leave work early except for long holidays such as the Spring Festival.

　　　 On May 7, the scene of tens of thousands of people crowding outside the 80,000-person stadium in Shanghai began at 3:00 pm. Nearly 80,000 people not only exploded the stadium, but also sang the stadium. At 7:45, when the conference announced the official start of "Andy Lau’s Unforgettable World Tour Concert", the audience was full of joy. The surging mood that had been waiting for a long time broke out when Andy Wai appeared from the top of the stage in a white suit. The dazzling LED that was nearly 100 meters and almost the same size as the stage shocked the audience, and everyone was shocked by the momentum of the integration under the stage. Everyone screamed frantically and took out their cameras and mobile phones to rush to shoot, so that Andy Lau, who had sung "Lone Star Tears", "Providence", and "Thank You for Your Love", couldn’t help but say, "Please put down your mobile phones, how can there be applause without hands? Artists need applause the most." As soon as he finished speaking, applause and screams rang out like thunder.　

　　　 Seeing the enthusiasm of the fans 80,000 the scene, Andy also randomly divided the scene into left and right sides, conducting the chorus PK competition of "Forgetting Love Water" and "Love You for 10,000 Years". After singing on the right, singing on the left, tens of thousands of spectators on both sides sang in a chorus. The enthusiasm of the audience moved Andy for his consistent support for the past 30 years. Finally, tears burst when singing the encore, and the audience in the audience followed suit. The nearly two and a half hours of thunderous Shanghai concert ended in this touching and joyous atmosphere.

More great pictures on the next page!

　　With the strong recovery of the performance market, large-scale concerts have blossomed everywhere this year. While fans are hooked, they are also plagued by scalpers’ ticket speculation.

　　To this end, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism and the Ministry of Public Security issued a notice in September this year that large-scale commercial performances with more than 5,000 people require a strong real-name system for purchasing tickets, that is, only one ticket can be purchased per ID document for each performance, and the identity information of the ticket buyer and the attendee must be consistent and cannot be transferred. This effectively controls the situation of scalpers scalping concert tickets.

　　At the same time, many netizens reported that it was still a bit difficult to watch concerts, and even some concerts and shows were more difficult to grab than before.

　　Tickets for top artists are still hard to grab, and the speed is "unrealistic"

　　In October this year, the Shanghai station of Jay Chou’s concert fired the first shot in the "ticket defense battle": the concert implemented a strong real-name policy for the first time, and tickets could not be transferred or resold after purchase. The effect of the tough policy was immediate – a few days before the concert started, scalpers had to cut meat in order to reduce losses, and accepted a 20% compensation.

　　After Jay Chou’s concert in Shanghai, other artists began to force real-name ticket purchases one after another, effectively controlling scalpers’ reselling of concert tickets. This made many fans applaud, saying that they could finally grab tickets quickly on the ticketing website, and some shows didn’t even need to be grabbed, "you can buy tickets at a leisurely pace"; some artists even sold tickets at a discount, which was cheaper than the price.

　　But at the same time, it is still difficult to grab tickets for top artists after the real-name system. On November 18, CCTV held an online survey on "Is it easier to grab tickets after the real-name system for concerts?" 34,000 of the 61,000 who participated in the poll chose "’Monks have more than porridge,’ it is still a little difficult," and only 7,581 chose "It is much easier than before." This shows that after the strong real-name system, it is still difficult to buy tickets for concerts.

　　Tickets for these concerts are difficult to grab, mainly because there are too many people who want to see them, and the number of tickets is limited. Take Jay Chou’s Carnival Tour Tianjin Station as an example. According to Damai.com, there are 4 rounds of ticket grabbing opportunities for concerts. Nearly 130,000 tickets are released, and more than 5.20 million people are marked "want to see" – the chance of grabbing tickets is very small.

　　Xiao Fei, a veteran performance planner who has planned many large-scale concerts, analyzed in an interview with a reporter from Beijing Youth Daily: "From a positive perspective, it shows that the supply and demand relationship is not balanced, and under the seller’s market, the value of the goods themselves is greater. In layman’s terms, the market appeal of artists is strong, that is, it is difficult to find a vote."

　　There are less professional scalpers for passers-by?

　　In an interview with a reporter from Beiqing Daily, it was found that after the real-name system was strengthened, a new industrial chain emerged: some "scalpers" developed software specially used to grab tickets, and even formed a "thousand people to grab tickets" team. They will bind the customer’s ID information in advance to help grab tickets – if successful, a high fee will be charged; if the ticket is not grabbed, 100% refund will be returned to the customer.

　　The interview found that these robbed in various ways are only "retail scalpers".

　　Mayday fans Nian Nian (pseudonym), who started chasing concerts in 2012, told the Beijing Youth Daily reporter that after the strong real-name system, "institutional scalpers" and ticketing companies began to pay crazy premiums. "The’passer-by scalpers’ that have been boycotted by many people are rare under the strong real-name system, but professional scalpers earn more. Ordinary consumers are also more restricted: I finally found a dozen friends to grab two tickets, but because it is not my information, I can’t transfer them. Ordinary consumers are helpless to grab tickets, but scalpers are’more ways than more difficult ‘."

　　Inside tickets are in demand? Grandstand tickets are 2 to 3 times premium

　　Generally, the price of grabbing tickets ranges from a few hundred to a few thousand yuan, and the more expensive ones are some premium internal tickets, including the so-called "invitation letter" of internal tickets. Shortly after the official announcement of the "TFBOYS Ten Year Appointment" concert in July and August this year, there were media reports that the first row of tickets had been priced by "scalpers" to 200,000 yuan each, and the second and third rows were also 150,000 yuan each. There are even chat records showing that the first five rows of single tickets for the concert were fried to 500,000 yuan, and the price of a first row ticket was 2 million yuan. These internal tickets can be scanned to enter personal names, ID cards and other information, which are displayed in the electronic ticket folder of the official ticketing platform and cannot be transferred. Soon, the organizers announced that there were no invitations to the concert, calling on the public not to believe in "scalpers".

　　Recently, the reporter consulted an online ticketing customer service as a consumer and learned that in the recent Times Youth Troupe Macau concert, the seat with a ticket of 780 yuan reached a maximum of 13,000 yuan, and the seat with a ticket of 2,600 yuan reached a maximum of 26,000 yuan. In the current market, it is normal for ordinary stand tickets to have a 2 to 3 times premium. It seems that the premium for concert tickets for top artists is very serious. Many netizens therefore asked: How did some scalpers and ticketing agencies get these tickets?

　　Meng Lun, a veteran performer, said that although the strong real-name system is currently being implemented smoothly, it is not easy to completely resist "scalpers". There will always be new scalping models in the market. "When the market is hot, there will be various channels to sell tickets to scalpers. Regulators need to adjust their management methods in a timely manner."

　　Some industry insiders have also revealed that the primary ticketing market, which openly snatches tickets, is just one of many channels for the organizers. Some organizers and official ticketing platforms resell some tickets to scalpers at high prices in order to make money, resulting in only a small part of the actual public ticket sales. In this way, it even creates the illusion that the concert is hot and one ticket is hard to find, which facilitates the sale of high-priced tickets in the secondary market.

　　"Out of stock registration" There is a singer behind the concert, and the stands are empty.

　　Falsehoods are always exposed.

　　The audience at the Guangzhou station of Huang Zitao’s 2023 tour concert found that there were still many empty seats in the infield and stands until the concert was about to start. On a ticketing platform, the original price of 2368 yuan for the infield ticket was only 262 yuan, and fans could "upgrade for free". Such "benefits" made the audience who bought tickets at the original price very unbalanced – it turned out that the official ticketing platform had marked "out of stock registration" on all ticket files early on, but now it seems that it is obviously not true. The original two concerts were scheduled, but the organizers later announced that the artist was sick and lost his voice and cancelled the performance on November 17. Tickets for the 18th were sold out except for the two stalls with the lowest price of 368 yuan and 502 yuan. Therefore, some people speculate that the reason for the cancellation of the concert on the 17th may also be related to the poor ticket sales. In addition to the "broken" tickets, the infield seats were vacant and the order was chaotic. Some people even said in Moments that they went in without spending money – because there were too many empty seats at the scene, they went in to help fill the number of people. Some netizens said that they could buy tickets at 9.9 yuan on a certain platform.

　　observe

　　There’s a lot more work to be done.

　　Obviously, the strong real-name system still needs to be improved – although many concerts have begun to implement "one person, one certificate, one face", there are still some organizers who do not strictly enforce it.

　　At the same time, many consumers report the inconvenience caused by the implementation of the strong real-name system: when ordinary consumers need to refund tickets due to some force majeure factors, the platform does not have a comprehensive solution. Not long ago, the Jiangsu Provincial Consumer Protection Committee put forward suggestions on the purchase of tickets under the strong real-name system, believing that the sports and entertainment industry can refer to the railway ticketing mechanism, improve the process of ticket purchase and refund, improve the after-sales services mechanism, and establish a complete "alternate" and "refund" process to avoid the flood of scalpers in the secondary market.

　　Xiaofei believes that the strong real-name system has dealt a great blow to scalpers and effectively promoted the healthy development of the performance market. At the same time, how to balance the real-name system with the normal demand of refund and transfer is also a test for market managers. "The big reason for the organizers’ premium is that they claim that the tickets have been sold out. Whether it is really sold out requires the relevant departments to strengthen supervision and strengthen the crackdown. In the era of big data, I believe this is not difficult to achieve. Looking forward to a more prosperous and orderly performance market, more rational and mature consumers, and more convenient management measures."

　　This reporter, Shou Penghuan, intern, Wang Jiayi

　　Coordinator/Liu Jianghua